Setups for the month ahead July 2018

EUR vs USD

Bullish bias for the month.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. Price did reach on of the target levels and formed a Doji. The Doji at the red level is significant. I would favour a further decline though. The level I would have loved to see get tested, had been the green rectangle. But we see signs of reaction at a level of interest that I had highlighted already in April (see here) and May (see here). We may still get another move down, but I do not trade what I think may happen. I trade what I see. And that is a potential reverdal at a level of interest. 

GBP vs CHF

Mixed signal.

GBP vs CHF M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs CHF. Price formed a bearish reversal pattern. However, price is at a support level. Last month bearish close may be a pullback. This asset is in the process of a trend shift. We have a higher high and successive higher lows, which is bullish. Sooner or later, we'll see a move back to 1,60 area. But we will only know after the facts. For now I am rather staying on the sidelines and observing how price reacts at the current level.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. Price did pullback from the 1,60 level to a level of interest and shows reaction at this level. This does not put my bias in favour of the bulls yet, but it catches my interest. The long upper wick shows, there is selling pressure at the 1,55 level. This makes me wonder if there is still supply left at the 1,55 level.

XAG vs USD

Mixed signal.

XAG vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of XAG vs USD (Silver). Price is sitting at an interesting level and fails to violate it. The series of lower highs shows bearish pressure. The question that arises is, which one is going to fail. I prefer a move to the upside, because that would be easier to trade. For now I am sitting on the sidelines and observing only. It may pay to keep an eye on this asset. 

USD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD. Price failed to close above the local high and formed a Rejection Candle. This is a bearish signal.  A close below the 1,30 level would have given me a bearish bias. We have higher highs and higher lows which is bullish. This tells me to keep my hands on my laps and wait for a clear signal.

GBP vs AUD

Mixed signal.

GBP vs AUD M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs AUD. After the Evening Star, price failed to follow suit and formed an Indecision Candle at a level of interest. The immediate market structure is bullish. Now I need a confirming sign for the bulls or for the bears. 

If you have questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the month ahead May 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. Price is sitting on top of support. I did mention last month, that I would like to see a correction back to the red horizontal line. Last month did close bearish, which puts weight in favour of the correction. As we are sitting at support, it may pay out to be patient.

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. I had a strong bias for CAD last month (here). I did close my long trade last month at 1,60 level (see here). We have successive higher lows, which shows bullish pressure. This asset may have run out of steam and needs new fuel. Currently the 1,50 level seems to be the next level of interest. I'll be looking for opportunities to short this asset.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price has closed bullish last month. We have a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. I did not get my trade long last month. My bias remains bullish. 

GOLD

Bearish bias for the month.

GOLD M1

This is the monthly chart of GOLD. Price is rejecting range resistance. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

GBP vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

GBP vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs USD. This asset shows a better bearish signal opposed to EUR vs USD. Price shows a rejection of the former ATL, which acts as resistance now. 

USDOLLAR

Mixed signal.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. Currently we see USD strength. Price was able to violate a significant level only to bounce back up. Currently it is too eatly to speak of Dollar Bulls. We need to see mothly close above the mother candle. However, we see signs of support holding. And that is basically bullish.

Ger30

Mixed signal.

Ger30 M1

This is the mothly chart of the CFD for Dax30. We have a bullish signal at a previous resistance leve, which is support now. This basically puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, the seasonality of equity markets is not in favour of bulls. I am ready to trade both ways. The setup is bullish, so I am more interested in bulls.

USD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

USD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs JPY. Price did close bullish last month and form a Morning Star Pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern. I'd have favoured a close above the 110 level. But we do not always get what we favour, right? 

GBP vs JPY

Mixed signal.

GBP vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs JPY. Last month did close as a Rejection Candle, which is a bearish sign. But price is close to a level of interest, which may prove to be support. I might look for temporary short opportunities. Once price closes below 145, my bias will be bearish.

NZD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs CAD. Last month close did form an Evening Star Pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the month ahead Apr 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. The chart above shows a shift of the trend. This asset has been in a range leaning back to March 2015. Price did break the range and mark significant signs of a trend shift. I was expecting a correction back to the green level and kept my hands on my lap (see this link for my last EUR vs USD analysis). Price is at an intereting level. We do not really have a setup at this level yet. Ideally I'd like to see a correction from this level and a test of the red horizontal level. For now, I will stay neutral on this asset. 

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. Price is at an intereting level. This asset failed to close above the 1,60 level and price failed to break the swing high. But note that price made successive higher swing lows, which shows bullish preassure. What I see now is, price failed to violate the previous high, which is not healthy for the bulls. Hence I'll refrain from bullish engagements. I did have a long position here, which I closed at about the 1,60 level (see here). April close will shed more light. Unfortunately I won't have the time to do the weekly analysis. It would be interesting to see how the weekly reacts at this level to get early signs.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price did form a bullish Rejection Candle at the 80,00 level. Price failed to violate the previous low and formed a Rejection Candle (a Hammer like candle), which puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I personally would have liked to see a stronger push south with a close at the same level, but we do not always get what we want. We trade what we see. And that is a rejection of the 80 level.

NZD vs  JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

NZD vs  JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs  JPY. Price formed a Doji smack dab at Support. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls for the month. I'd have loved to see a test of the 70 level, though. We may still see a test of the 70 level. But what we see at the moment is a setup at support.

GER30 / DAX30

Mixed signal.

GER30 / DAX30 M1

This is the monthly chart of GER30 / DAX30. The trend is bullish and price formed a Rejection Candle at support. Price was not able to violate the previous low. All these are bullish signs. Go with the trend. As you can see, I did take a trade. But due to seasonality we may see a ranging market. Either I am bullish or neutral. I will stay away from bearish positions for the time being. One form a Riskmanagement is to reduce the unlimited possibilities of trading.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

EUR vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs JPY. The previous month did form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which engulfs 3 to 4 previous candles. Last month failed to follow suit which diminishes the bearish outlook on this asset. Price did break a previous high and may form a new high at the 135 level. We'll only know for sure after the facts. I'll keep my eyes on this asset. I'd like to see a test of the 125 level.

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD. Price failed to close above the previous high and close above 1,30. Further, price formed a Rejection Candle which could be classified a Shooting Star. Ideally I'd like to see a Shooting Star at a swing high. The 1,30 level is a level of interest. And last month candle confirms this level of interest. The rejection of 1,30 puts my bias in favour of the bears.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price has been trading inside the range leaning back to July 2013 (marks the bottom). Price is inside the range, which makes trading this asset hazardous. However, price showed rejection at an interesting level, which catches my attention. The rejection of the range resistance and the parity level puts my bias in favour of the bears.

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the mothly chart of NZD vs CAD. Price shows rejection of the 0,95 level, which puts me on alert. Price is close to the ATH and forms a Rejection Candle. Now it is time to adjust my stops, think about taking profit, and even consider looking for short opportunities. The market will not reverse immediately, but my bias has switched.

Cross Market Analysis

CAD appears to be one of the stronger currencies for the month ahead. So I'll be preferably looking for opportunities to buy CAD. I haven't talked much about AUD as there has not been many setups with AUD. However, AUD appears weak. I'll attach below GBP vs AUD and EUR vs AUD.

 

Both AUD pairs are moving north. EUR vs AUD is in close vicinity to resistance. But currently there are no signs of a reversal. So I'll maintain the bullish bias. GBP vs AUD did break a high and continues with bullish strength.

The cross analysis would not be complete if I didn't look at the USD Index.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USD Index. Price did break a level of interest but is still in the vicinity of support Support and resistance are never a straight line but rather an area. The immediate bias is bearish, as we have firs signs of a trend shift. The long term bias is still bullish. This asset is not helpful to establish a bias for EUR vs USD.

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT