Setups for the month ahead July 2018

EUR vs USD

Bullish bias for the month.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. Price did reach on of the target levels and formed a Doji. The Doji at the red level is significant. I would favour a further decline though. The level I would have loved to see get tested, had been the green rectangle. But we see signs of reaction at a level of interest that I had highlighted already in April (see here) and May (see here). We may still get another move down, but I do not trade what I think may happen. I trade what I see. And that is a potential reverdal at a level of interest. 

GBP vs CHF

Mixed signal.

GBP vs CHF M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs CHF. Price formed a bearish reversal pattern. However, price is at a support level. Last month bearish close may be a pullback. This asset is in the process of a trend shift. We have a higher high and successive higher lows, which is bullish. Sooner or later, we'll see a move back to 1,60 area. But we will only know after the facts. For now I am rather staying on the sidelines and observing how price reacts at the current level.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. Price did pullback from the 1,60 level to a level of interest and shows reaction at this level. This does not put my bias in favour of the bulls yet, but it catches my interest. The long upper wick shows, there is selling pressure at the 1,55 level. This makes me wonder if there is still supply left at the 1,55 level.

XAG vs USD

Mixed signal.

XAG vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of XAG vs USD (Silver). Price is sitting at an interesting level and fails to violate it. The series of lower highs shows bearish pressure. The question that arises is, which one is going to fail. I prefer a move to the upside, because that would be easier to trade. For now I am sitting on the sidelines and observing only. It may pay to keep an eye on this asset. 

USD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD. Price failed to close above the local high and formed a Rejection Candle. This is a bearish signal.  A close below the 1,30 level would have given me a bearish bias. We have higher highs and higher lows which is bullish. This tells me to keep my hands on my laps and wait for a clear signal.

GBP vs AUD

Mixed signal.

GBP vs AUD M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs AUD. After the Evening Star, price failed to follow suit and formed an Indecision Candle at a level of interest. The immediate market structure is bullish. Now I need a confirming sign for the bulls or for the bears. 

If you have questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 14.05.-18.05.18

EUR vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. Last week close formed a Hammer at support. This is a bullish reversal pattern. In the monthly analysis, I did talk about this asset. I did mention, that I'd like to see a correction red horizontal line. However, due to the support level price is sitting there was no clear bias. See here for last month analysis. Having a weekly Pinbar at support puts my bias in favour of the bulls.
At this point, I'd like to draw your attention to two of my articles one about Pinbars the other about stop hunting.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. I did mention the 1,50 level in the monthly analysis (see here). The weekly timeframe shows support more clear. And we see signs of reaction at support. The signs are not sufficient enough to switch the bias, but it is well worth to keep an eye on this asset and the level price is sitting at.

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price is sitting at an interesting level. This asset is hitting the current support level the fourth time now. This shows, this level is significant. Either this level holds or it breaks. One thing about support and resistance levels is they are stronger if they got tested a couple times. Eventually they will give in and fail. We never know before hand. Currently support is holding and we have an Indecision Candle at support. However, the structure of the market shows bearish pressure with successive lower highs. It may be worth to keep an eye on this asset in the near future.

Gold

Gold W1

This is the weekly chart of Gold (XAU vs USD). Price is trapped between 1350 and 1300. The million dollar question is, which level is going to fail? The monthly bias is bearish. Currenlty the weekly bias does not confirm the monthly bias. I'll keep may hands on my lap, wait, and observe patiently. I am not interested in trading range support, price is sitting at.

GBP vs USD

Mixed signal.

GBP vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of GBP vs USD. Price formed an Indecision Candle at a level of interest. Recent Dollar strength did break the most recent higher low. This may be the sign for a continuation of the bear trend. We'll only know once price moved. For now, we see Indecison at support. This is not enough for me to establish a bullish bias, hence I'll wait and observe. A close above or below will shed more light.

USDOLLAR

Bearish bias for the week.

USDOLLAR W1

This is the weekly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. Last week did close as a Shooting Star at a level of interest. We may see a test of the red horizontal line.

AUD vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs USD. Last week did close as a Hammer at a level of interest. A Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

GBP vs AUD

Bullish bias for the week.

GBP vs AUD W1

This is the weekly chart of GBP vs AUD. Price formed a Gravestone Doji, which could be classified as the ultimate Inverted Hammer. A Doji is a reversal pattern. An Inverted Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern. What I do not like about Inverted Hammers is, these can also be classified as Rejection Candles at the same time. Here, we have higher highs and higher lows, which is a bullish trend. This is why I label last week candle an Inverted Hammer. This formation also formed at support. What I see is a bullish reversal pattern in a bullish trend at support. Hence, my bias is bullish.

AUD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price is at a level of interest and formed a bullish reversal pattern called Hammer. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

GBP vs CAD

Mixed signal.

GBP vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of GBP vs CAD. Price did close as an Indecision Candle at support. Some might call last week candle an Inverted Hammer. It is not really important how you lable candles, what is important is, what do the candles tell me. Price is at a level of interest. If price is not able to violate this level, than we have a bullish sign. Currently we see price is rejecting 1,75 but failed to violate support. Next week close will shed more light.

A word of caution. Last week close have formed many Pinbars. Those who trade only pinbars must be happy as there are many opportunities to trade pinbars. But not all Pinbars are a guaranteed success. Please read my article about pinbars (here).

Cross Currency Analysis

With a weak bias on USD, chances have increased in favour of a bullish reversal on EUR vs USD, GBP vs USD, and AUD vs USD.

Since there have been some assets with a rather strong bias in favour of AUD, I'd be carefull with GBP vs AUD.

If you have questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the month ahead May 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. Price is sitting on top of support. I did mention last month, that I would like to see a correction back to the red horizontal line. Last month did close bearish, which puts weight in favour of the correction. As we are sitting at support, it may pay out to be patient.

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. I had a strong bias for CAD last month (here). I did close my long trade last month at 1,60 level (see here). We have successive higher lows, which shows bullish pressure. This asset may have run out of steam and needs new fuel. Currently the 1,50 level seems to be the next level of interest. I'll be looking for opportunities to short this asset.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price has closed bullish last month. We have a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. I did not get my trade long last month. My bias remains bullish. 

GOLD

Bearish bias for the month.

GOLD M1

This is the monthly chart of GOLD. Price is rejecting range resistance. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

GBP vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

GBP vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs USD. This asset shows a better bearish signal opposed to EUR vs USD. Price shows a rejection of the former ATL, which acts as resistance now. 

USDOLLAR

Mixed signal.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. Currently we see USD strength. Price was able to violate a significant level only to bounce back up. Currently it is too eatly to speak of Dollar Bulls. We need to see mothly close above the mother candle. However, we see signs of support holding. And that is basically bullish.

Ger30

Mixed signal.

Ger30 M1

This is the mothly chart of the CFD for Dax30. We have a bullish signal at a previous resistance leve, which is support now. This basically puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, the seasonality of equity markets is not in favour of bulls. I am ready to trade both ways. The setup is bullish, so I am more interested in bulls.

USD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

USD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs JPY. Price did close bullish last month and form a Morning Star Pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern. I'd have favoured a close above the 110 level. But we do not always get what we favour, right? 

GBP vs JPY

Mixed signal.

GBP vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs JPY. Last month did close as a Rejection Candle, which is a bearish sign. But price is close to a level of interest, which may prove to be support. I might look for temporary short opportunities. Once price closes below 145, my bias will be bearish.

NZD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs CAD. Last month close did form an Evening Star Pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 09.04.-13.04.18

This is the first weekly setup for this year. I have been too busy to keep up with the weekly setups. Below I'll share my thoughts on select assets leaning on the monthly (see here).

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. The significance of the 1,60 level is clearly seen on this chart. Price did close above the 1,60 level and immediately corrected more than 500 Pips. The close below the grey box catches my attention. This is an early sign I that we may see a correction. The close below the box puts my bias in favour of the bears for the week. 

NZD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price did react at support. There is some resistance (red horizontal line to the left). If price clears that level, that will be a healthy sign for the bulls. 

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

USD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of USD vs CAD. Price shows reaction at the 1,30 level. Previously we had a Dark Cloud Cover signal, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Price did halt for a week. With last week close we had the follow through. The close below the Mother Candle puts my bias in favour of the bears. However, keep in mind that price did make a new high, which basically is a bullish sign. We need to take everything into consideration. The markets talk to us, it is up to the trader to listen. Immediate structure is bulish, with a high followed by a higher low, than having a higher high. We may see a correction to the 1,25 level. We have to evaluate as time and price progress.

NZD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs CAD. Counter the the rejection of the 0.95 level mentioned in the monthly analysis, the weekly shows a reaction at support (red dashed line). Price did break resitance, came back and gets rejected. This is a bullish sign, hence my bias is bullish for the week. This does not mean I am looking to buy this asset. This analysis helps me to manage my positions. I am aware of the monthly Rejection Candle. 

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy tradig,

TT

Closed trades in March 2018

I have stopped posting past trades about a year ago for variuos reasons. But since I did talk about the significance of the 1,60 level on EUR vs CAD I'll attach the trade I took on this asset. This is also to illustrate what patience can do to your trade. Looking at a longer timeframe may help you to see the big picture better.

EUR vs CAD

Now I'll wait for April close to decide about the next step on this pair. In the monthly analysis I came to the conclusion that CAD appears strong (see here). So it may have been the right move to close the trade at the 1,60 level.

If you have questions, or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the month ahead Apr 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. The chart above shows a shift of the trend. This asset has been in a range leaning back to March 2015. Price did break the range and mark significant signs of a trend shift. I was expecting a correction back to the green level and kept my hands on my lap (see this link for my last EUR vs USD analysis). Price is at an intereting level. We do not really have a setup at this level yet. Ideally I'd like to see a correction from this level and a test of the red horizontal level. For now, I will stay neutral on this asset. 

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. Price is at an intereting level. This asset failed to close above the 1,60 level and price failed to break the swing high. But note that price made successive higher swing lows, which shows bullish preassure. What I see now is, price failed to violate the previous high, which is not healthy for the bulls. Hence I'll refrain from bullish engagements. I did have a long position here, which I closed at about the 1,60 level (see here). April close will shed more light. Unfortunately I won't have the time to do the weekly analysis. It would be interesting to see how the weekly reacts at this level to get early signs.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price did form a bullish Rejection Candle at the 80,00 level. Price failed to violate the previous low and formed a Rejection Candle (a Hammer like candle), which puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I personally would have liked to see a stronger push south with a close at the same level, but we do not always get what we want. We trade what we see. And that is a rejection of the 80 level.

NZD vs  JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

NZD vs  JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs  JPY. Price formed a Doji smack dab at Support. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls for the month. I'd have loved to see a test of the 70 level, though. We may still see a test of the 70 level. But what we see at the moment is a setup at support.

GER30 / DAX30

Mixed signal.

GER30 / DAX30 M1

This is the monthly chart of GER30 / DAX30. The trend is bullish and price formed a Rejection Candle at support. Price was not able to violate the previous low. All these are bullish signs. Go with the trend. As you can see, I did take a trade. But due to seasonality we may see a ranging market. Either I am bullish or neutral. I will stay away from bearish positions for the time being. One form a Riskmanagement is to reduce the unlimited possibilities of trading.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

EUR vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs JPY. The previous month did form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which engulfs 3 to 4 previous candles. Last month failed to follow suit which diminishes the bearish outlook on this asset. Price did break a previous high and may form a new high at the 135 level. We'll only know for sure after the facts. I'll keep my eyes on this asset. I'd like to see a test of the 125 level.

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD. Price failed to close above the previous high and close above 1,30. Further, price formed a Rejection Candle which could be classified a Shooting Star. Ideally I'd like to see a Shooting Star at a swing high. The 1,30 level is a level of interest. And last month candle confirms this level of interest. The rejection of 1,30 puts my bias in favour of the bears.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price has been trading inside the range leaning back to July 2013 (marks the bottom). Price is inside the range, which makes trading this asset hazardous. However, price showed rejection at an interesting level, which catches my attention. The rejection of the range resistance and the parity level puts my bias in favour of the bears.

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the mothly chart of NZD vs CAD. Price shows rejection of the 0,95 level, which puts me on alert. Price is close to the ATH and forms a Rejection Candle. Now it is time to adjust my stops, think about taking profit, and even consider looking for short opportunities. The market will not reverse immediately, but my bias has switched.

Cross Market Analysis

CAD appears to be one of the stronger currencies for the month ahead. So I'll be preferably looking for opportunities to buy CAD. I haven't talked much about AUD as there has not been many setups with AUD. However, AUD appears weak. I'll attach below GBP vs AUD and EUR vs AUD.

 

Both AUD pairs are moving north. EUR vs AUD is in close vicinity to resistance. But currently there are no signs of a reversal. So I'll maintain the bullish bias. GBP vs AUD did break a high and continues with bullish strength.

The cross analysis would not be complete if I didn't look at the USD Index.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USD Index. Price did break a level of interest but is still in the vicinity of support Support and resistance are never a straight line but rather an area. The immediate bias is bearish, as we have firs signs of a trend shift. The long term bias is still bullish. This asset is not helpful to establish a bias for EUR vs USD.

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Happy belated New Year

I wish you all a Happy New Year, lots of success and fun.

Now the first month of 2018 has passed.

I have been very busy since late last year. Due to the errands I have not been able to take care of this blog and keep it up to date. I will do my best to keep this blog with all its sections up to date. There are many articles to come.
I have to take into account the changing situation. So my approach to the market has been modified. The beauty the way I approach the market, it is time indifferent. That means, my trading style is the same, but my focus did shift to the monthly timeframe. Hence the section "Setups for the week ahead" will become "Setpus for the month ahead".
The advantage is, I have a lot of time to do many other things while I am still trading the same way I was trading before. I'll just have to be more patient.

Another thing I am debating with is whether to publish actual and closed positions, as I did when I started this blog. You may have noticed that I stopped posting my live trades long ago for various reasons. Most importantly because, I do not want to be mistaken with a signal provider.

Anyway, I am back and will keep this blog up to date.
As always, if you have any feedback please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT