Setups for the week ahead 11.12.-15.12.17

EUR vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. Last week failed to violate the 1,50 level and formed a Rejection Candle. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

XAU vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

XAU vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of Gold. Price did break the higher low to the downside and made a close below 1.250. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. We have the beginning signs of a trend shift.

USDOLLAR

Bullish bias for the week.

FXCM USDOLLAR

This is the weekly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. Last week close did complete the Morning Star Pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern. But what's more important is, the question wheather this asset built a higher low. At the moment it appears like the establishment of a higher low. The close above the 12 level puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I am not trading this asset, but I like to use this asset to establish trading ideas on other assets such as EUR vs USD etc.

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. This asset is in a bullish trend. Currently we don't know if the pullback is over and we'll see a continuation of the bullish trend. We may also see the beginning signs of a trend shift followed by a deeper correction (or even a trend change). Last week did complete the Evening Star Pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. This asset made about 1.500 pips without really a pullback since April this year. With a bullish Dollar bias, chances are in favour of the Evening Star Pattern on this asset. Time will tell. I still would like to see a test of the black horizontal line, ideally of the green rectangle.

Ger30

Bullish bias for the week.

Ger30 W1

This is the weekly chart of Ger30/DAX30. Last week did close as a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at a relevant level. This is not an ideal Bullish Engulfing Pattern is the engulfing pattern failed to close above the previous candle. However, the pattern is valid and it is at a relevant level. We trade what we see. And that is a bullish pattern at a level of interest. Additionally we have a closing price above the 13.000 level. All this puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

Copper

Bearish bias for the week.

Copper W1

This is the weekly chart of Copper. This asset is in a bullish trend. However, my bias for the week ahead is counter the prevailing trend. Price did close the first time below a higher low. This catches my attention. This is not a shift of trend yet.

USD vs CHF

Bullish bias for the week.

USD vs CHF W1

This is the weekly chart of USD vs CHF. Price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at a level of interest. See to the left, you'll see a break of a lower high. Price did pull back to this level and formed a bullish reversal pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. Additionally, the USDOLLAR Index (FXCM USD Index) also suggests bullishness. Basically below parity I would rather maintain a neutral of negative biase, but market structure suggests bullishness.

EUR vs GBP

Mixed signal.

EUR vs GBP W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs GBP. I was debating with myself whether or not to list this asset. As you can tell, I decided in favour of the latter. Price is in a narrow trading range, which I like to call a congestion zone. It is not advised to trade inside the congestion. However, I like how last the week Rejection Candle formed right on top of support. This suggests strength at this level. A close below the lower red horizontal line would negate this putative strength.

AUD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs CAD. This is an asset that likes to wick a lot. So keep this in mind trading AUD vs CAD. Price shows resistance to move south. Last week did close as a Rejection Candle. Price tried to violate the swing low but failed to do so. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

It seems the week ahead will be an interesting one. USD appears to be the srongest asset for the week ahead. Many trading opportunities do not necessarily mean to take many trades. I hope you find my weekly analysis useful in your journey as a trader.

If you have any questions or feedback please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 04.12.-08.12.2017

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. Last week did close as a Shooting Star. The week did close with good CAD news. Price failed to break the swing high. This puts my bias for the week ahead in favour of the bears. Price is testing the resistance level. I am not inclined to look for short opportunities above 1,50. As long price is above 1,50 I am willing to give the market the chance to break resistance.

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price shows all signs of a trend shift with a lower high and a lower low. There is a good chance we may see a test of the 75 level. That is the next critical level. But there is no bearish weekly setup, hence the label "mixed signal." It is weel worth to keep an eye on this asset. I'll get more interested once price gets closer to the critical level.

AUD vs NZD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs NZD. Last week did close as a Hammer. This is a bullish reversal pattern. I did talk about this asset and some other Aussie related pairs last week (see here).

US Oil

Mixed signal.

US Oil W1

This is the weekly chart of US Oil. There is no setup as of yet. But price is approaching an interestig level. That's why this asset is listed here. Last week did close as a Hanging Man, which is a bearish reversal pattern. However, a Hanging Man needs to get confirmed. I personally do not like trading Hanging Man formations, cause these can also be interpreted as a bullish pattern representing a rejection of lower prices. Count three candles back and you see a nice Hanging Man formation. That's why we need to wait for confirmation of a Hanging Man. For now, all I care is the level. And the level is interesting.

If you have feedbacks or any questions, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 27.11.-01.12.17

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price did break a swing low and is about to test the next swing low. The 75 level is a level of interest. As price approaches this level it catches my interest. That's why this asset is listed here.

AUD vs NZD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs NZD. Price did form an Outside Bar (and a Bullish Engulfing Pattern). Basically the Outside Bar is a continuation pattern. Here it would be a reversal signal. I do not really differentiate between an engulfing pattern or an outside bar. What counts is the engulf. But here the Bullish Engulfing Pattern is not confirming. We have two narrow candles. However, the market likes to test levels. The next relevant level is marked with the two red horizontal lines and is resting at a level of interest. The trend is bullish with a series of higher highs and  higher lows.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

EUR vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs JPY. This asset is still trading inside the narrow congestion zone. It is well worth to keep an eye on this asset.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price is at an interesting level. Price attempts to break a swing low but failed so far. We see a test of a level of interest. Last week closed as an Indecision Candle. This catches my interest. 

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

NZD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs CAD. Price failed to break the swing low and is at a level of interest. It is worth to keep an eye on this asset as well.

Cross-Currency-Analysis

AUD vs CAD and NZD vs CAD are at a level of interest. There are no setups yet, but if you plan to trade any of these pairs, you might want to look at AUD vs NZD first. AUD vs NUD did print a Bullish Outside Bar, which is a bullish signal. Hence AUD appears stronger compared  to NZD. So if I were to trade any of these two assets, I'd put more focus on AUD vs CAD.

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy Trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 20.11.-24.11.17

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. Basically we have a bullish setup with a modified Morning Star Pattern. However, price was not able to close above the big bearish candle, which keeps me alert. I'll keep an eye on this asset. Maybe we will not see the test of the black horizontal line that I would love to see. A look at the Dollar Index might give some clues.

USDOLLAR

Mixed signal.

USDOLLAR W1

This is the weekly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR Index. Price formed an Indecision Candle at a level of interest. This may indicate potential strength. The 10 level proves to be relevant again. As long price is not able to violate the 10 level, the bias will remain mixed to bullish. This diminishes the potential bullish outlook on the asset above (EUR vs USD).

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. With the fifth attempt price managed to close above the 1,50 level. This is basically bullish. However, resistance at 1,5250 level is not far. Hence the label "mixed signal".

EUR vs NZD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs NZD. Price performed a strong bounce of a support level (red parallel lines) and a close above the 1,70 level. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. We have all indications of a strong market. 

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

EUR vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs JPY. Price is in a congestion zone. This catches my attention. Once price breaks out, it will move far. So stay alert on this asset. Last week did close as a Rejection Candle. But I don't put much emphasis on the last week candle. Price is still above support (red horizontal line). As an aggressive approach, I'd like to see a close above or below the black dottet lines. Price has moved about 2.000 Pips without a pullback. This is not a guarantee for a move south, but it is something to consider if you want to trade support.

EUR vs AUD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs AUD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs AUD. Price made a strong close above the 1,55 level. Price formed an ascending triangle that got broken at the same time. This is a bullish signal. However, price stopped at a level of interest. We may see a pause/reaction at the current level.

If you have any questions or feedback please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 13.11.-17.11.17

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. Price is testing the red support level. But we have the beginning signs of a trend shift. I am not interested in bullish setups. Last week failed to violate the previous high. What I said last week about this asset remains valid. See here for last week analysis on this pair.

CAD  vs JPY

Mixed signal.

CAD  vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of CAD  vs JPY. Price is at an interesting level. Last week did close as a Doji. On a lower timeframe price is testing the bottom of a range level. Either this pair formed a lower high, or we see a violatin of the last week low, which would be a violation of the support level created by the previou swing high that price is testing currently. Either way, this is an interesting asset to keep an eye on.

AUD vs NZD

Mixed singal.

AUD vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs NZD. Price is at a level of interest. It is worth to keep an eye on this asset. Price has made successive higher highs and may now form the next higher low.

EUR vs NZD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs NZD. Price formed a Hammer at a level of support. Some traders may call this a Hanging Man since price has moved up already. But we are making higher highs and higher lows. And recently we had a violation of a previous high that got tested now (see the two red horizontal lines). We have an established bullish trend and price is giving a bullish signal at a level of interest. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

If you have any questions or feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 06.11.-10.11.17

EUR vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. Price did violate support and last week formed an Indecision Candle inside the previous one. The upper wick shows rejection of the previous support level. I am not keen on trading this asset. I want to see a test of the black horizontal line or better a test of the green rectangle. These are my target areas to look for setups.

XAU vs USD

Mixed signal.

XAU vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of Gold. Price is at an interesting level. We are now at a decision point. A violation below the green zone is bearish. A bullish weekly close would be signs of strenght. I need to reevaluate at the end of the week. We may see interesting moves soon.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed singal.

EUR vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs JPY. Price appears to top out. The trend is bullish, however the bulls appear to run out of steam. We may see a correction of the last leg up.

I hope you enjoy the weekly setups. If you have any questions or feedback. please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 23.10.-27.10.17

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. Price was not able to violate support, nor was price able to break the top of the Bullish Engulfing Pattern. Last week closed as an Inside Candle. Price is indecisive at a level of interest. Personally I would like to see price move south to test the previous range level (black horizontal line). But we do not always get what we want. As traders we have to work with what we see. And that is currently Indecisive at support. As long support holds, treat support as support. I do not need to be in a trade, so I am fine waiting another week or two for a good setup to trade. A look at the Dollar Index will help me in the decision making process.

EUR vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. I was talking about this asset the previous week (see here) and the price only took of last week unfortunately without me. Having established a bullish bias does not necessarily mean I am going to buy this asset. It also means I am going to avoid to sell this asset. Having a bias reduces the vast amout of trading opportunities, which may prove to be essential.

CAD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

CAD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price formed the 3rd Indecision Candle in a row at a level of interest. The last candle could classify as a High Wave Candle. As you can see by the black dotted lines, price failed to violate the first Indecision Candle (on a weekly basis).

AUD vs NZD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs NZD. Basically the structure is bullish. If price had not been this close to the resistance level marked with the red line, I'd have labeled this asset as bullish. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. This is the classic definition of a bullish trend. Price is now approaching about the fourth time this level. Either we'll see a violation or a bounce. Only time will tell. This asset is very interesting. Keep an eye on this one.

EUR vs NZD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs NZD. This asset is quite interesting. Notice how last week did violate the previous Pinbar. That was a nice beatish setup. But it failed (mainly because of NZD news). If you have not read my article about Pinbars, you can find it here. This asset shows the classi signs of a bullish trend i.e. a series of higher highs and higher lows. This basically this puts my bias in favour of the bulls, hence I'll avoid shorting this asset. But price is approaching a level of interest and we may see a reaction here.

USDOLLAR

Mixed signal.

USDOLLAR W1

This is the FXCM Dollar Index. The question that arises now is, did we form a lower high? Price was not able to violate the 12 level and formed a Piercing Pattern at a previous congestion area. At this moment, I don't give the Piercing Pattern (bullish formation) much value. If we are going to see USD strength, price has to break and close above the 12 level. Below the 12 level I tend to be neutral or bearish. Unfortunately this asset is not helpful to evaluate EUR vs USD. I am not rather neutral to bearish this asset.

DAX 30

Mixed singal.

DAX 30 W1

This is the weekly chart of DAX 30 (FXCM Ger30). Price did form the second Doji in a row. Hence this asset did catch my attention. The trend is bullish, so I am not keen on counter trend trading this asset. But I'll keep a keen eye on this for potential setups. A close below the Doji would be a bearish signal.

EUR vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs JPY. Last week I did talk about this asset and mentioned I'd like to see a close above the two Indecision Candles. I also talked about the Tombstone Doji. (click here).
Last week candle engulfs the two previous candles. And this happens at a level of interest in a bullish trend. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. But price is very close at the swing high which can act as resistance.

Copper

Bearish bias for the week.

Copper W1

This is the weekly chart of Copper. Price formed a Shooting Star at a previous trouble area and the swing high. This puts my bias in favour of the bears.

Hope you enjoy my weekly analysis. If you have any queations or feedback please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Talking about trends Part 2

If you have not read Part 1, I'd strongly suggest to read part 1 (click here), is this is a continuation of the first part.

We have already established that the financial markets are fractal by nature. Now let is elaborate on this by looking at some live charts.

EUR vs JPY m5

This is the 5 minute chart of EUR vs JPY. We have a shift of trend on on this timeframe. Prevoiusly price was making higher highs and higher lows and all the sudden price broke the previous low and made a strong move down. Some may say this is a down trend. Let's have a look at the 1 minute chart.

EUR vs JPY m1

This is the 1 minute chart of EUR vs JPY. We have two timeframes showing a lower low and possibly a lower high.

We already know that we cannot really talk about trends without specifying the timeframe. The assumption of a bearish trend in development may be true on the lower timeframes seen above. But what about the higher timeframe such as H4 or Daily?

EUR vs JPY H4

This is the H4 chart of EUR vs JPY. What we thought might be a trend on H4 may only be a reaction on the higher timeframe. 

EUR vs JPY D1

This is the daily chart of EUR vs JPY. Price is making higher highs and higher lows.

While we assume a bearish trend on the smaller timeframe, the higher timeframe shows us a bullish trend. Some traders who were lucky to take the trade from lower prices might have gotten out because they got scared by looking at the smaller timeframes. This is not wrong. This is one way to manage the trade. It is one form of risk- and money management (clicke here for more about risk- and money management). 

The trend on the daily did not get invalidated, so I must assume the trend continues. And I can keep my position open and still keep an eye for warning signs on a smaller timeframe such as H4. The story is told on H4, that's why I maintain a part of my position. And now I am scratching on a new aspect that I want to talk about in "Talking a little bit about risk management". (If you have not read my article "Talking a little bit about risk management part 1" click here).

I hope you enjoy reading my articles. If you have any questions of would like to give me feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

Oezy

Talking about Trends part 1

Today I want to talk about trends. We all did hear the famous line “The trend is your friend.” Well, this line is so true. But this simple sentence leads to a lot of confusion. So let’s delve into this matter.

But let me confuse you a little bit more. I promise I will clean up the mess. What is a trend? Some see three bullish candles in a row and call it a trend. Then there are traders who put a Moving Average on the chart and say if price is above that line, the trend is bullish and below that line for bearish. Then there are trades that look at an oscillator and say if price is above the 0-line, the trend is bullish and below the 0-line for bearish. I am not going to say this is wrong, as there are many different ways to approach a trade. But I want to state, that there is a lot of information missing in this approach. Others talk about higher highs and higher lows, which is about the classic definition of a trend. While I tend to agree with the latter one, there is still information missing. Talking about trend requires more than saying “the trend is bullish” or “the trend is bearish”.

Let’s talk about fractals. The markets are fractal by nature. And I am not talking about the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator. Not yet that is. So what are fractals? Did anyone of you ask yourself this question? Now we are getting into Chaos Theory. No worries, I am not going to lecture you about the theory of complex systems. When we think of Chaos we have a picture in mind where there is no order at all. Most of us do not know that Chaos is a higher form of order (complex and dynamic). We are already talking about fractals. Fractals are self repeating patterns. While each single pattern looks the same, each single pattern is individual. Snowflakes are very a very good example to describe the fractal nature. Each individual snowflake looks like the other. But in detail they are all unique. And this applies to the financial markets as well. I can post any chart and hide the timeframe. No one would be able to tell what timeframe it is. This is the fractal nature of the markets. And now we are getting closer to talk about trends.

Above I gave a classic definition of trends. We are looking for a series of higher highs and higher lows for a bullish trend. A bearish trend therefore would come with a series of lower lows and lower highs. But since markets are fractal by nature, we need to define the timeframe. Let me give you a fictive example where we are looking at the daily timeframe and we see a series of higher highs and higher lows; hence we have a bullish trend on the daily timeframe. But this may merely be a pullback on the weekly timeframe, where we have a series of lower lows and lower highs. Or a series of same level highs and same level lows, which would define a ranging market.

Let me illustrate this with some charts. I will not go into details at this time as that would take too much time and space. For now we’ll take a general view of the market flow.

USD vs CAD H4

This is the 4 Hour chart of USD vs CAD showing us a series of higher highs and higher lows. This is bullish.

USD vs CAD D1

This is the daily chart of USD vs CAD showing us a series of lower lows and lower highs. This is bearish.

USD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of USD vs CAD showing us a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently we are seeing a potential shift of trend (more about this in a later post).

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD showing us a series of higher highs and higher lows. This is bullish.

As you can see by the charts, it is not suffice to say the trend is bullish. We need to refer to the trend on a specific timeframe. The charts clearly show that a pullback on one timeframe can be a trend on another timeframe. And this goes on and on. We have a bullish trend on the monthly timeframe while the daily is bearish. The weekly already formed a lower low and a lower high, which is basically bearish but the monthly is in a bullish trend.

I will get deeper in the topic of trends in future posts. I hope you enjoyed this article and found value in reading it. If you have any questions and feedback/suggestions please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week 16.10.-20.10.17

EUR vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs USD

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. This asset is in the process of a trend shift. Price did break out of the range, I am expecting a pullback. Price did pull back and formed a bullish reversal pattern at a level of interest. We have a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at support. This signal is a bullish signal. So my bias is bullish. Ideally we had seen a pullback to the black line and get the bullish reversal signal at that level. But we do not always get what we want. We have a bullish signal at a level of interest. I'll be looking for long opportunities. However, I still favour a move to the black line. That means I am not eager to trade this asset long. I am fine letting a trade pass. If I get a suitable setup, I'll happily take the trade.

CAD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

CAD vs JPY

This is the weekly chart of CAD vs JPY. Two Indecisin Candles in a row catch my attention. Price is at a level of interest. So I stay alert with my neutral bias. We may seem some interesting moves here.

NZD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs JPY

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price formed an Indecision Candle with a rather long lower wick showing a rejection. This candle could pass as a Hammer. The rejection did happen at a level of interest. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. 

EUR vs NZD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs NZD

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs NZD. Last week failed to violate the high and formed a Shooting Star. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

USDOLLAR

Bearish bias for the week.

USDOLLAR

This is the weekly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. FXCM has it's very own USD Index, which is slighlty different than the classic Dollar Index. However, the FXCM Dollar Index is useful for the analysis nevertheless. Price failed to violate the high I was talking about last week (see here) and formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern at the 12 level. This puts my bias in favour of the bears and adds more bullish fuel to my thoughts about EUR vs USD. 

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal for the week.

EUR vs JPY

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs JPY. We have two Inside Candels. Last week did close as a Tombstone Doji. In the context of the current market structure we could talk about an Inverted Hammer, which basically is a bullish reversal pattern. I personally favour to see a weekly close above the two Indecision Candles before I talk about a bullish bias. If I see a setup at the red horiziontal line, I am very inclined to take the trade.

AUD vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs USD

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs USD. Price did form a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at the previous range resistance level, which should act as support now. The Bullish Engulfing Pattern at Support puts my bias in favour of the bulls. 

EUR vs AUD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs AUD

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs AUD. Price failed the third time to violate the swing high. Last week did form a Rejection Candle. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. A conservative approach would be to wait for the violation of the trendline. 

NZD vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs USD

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs USD. Price formed a Piercing Pattern at a level of interest. This and the bearish bias for USD puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

AUD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs CAD

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at a confluence support level (see the trendline and the two parallel red lines. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, take note that price is still inside the big bearish mother candle.

Cross Currency Analysis

The two assets that stick out are AUD and USD. AUD presents strength throughout the pairs and USD is weak. This makes AUD vs USD an interesting asset to trade.