Setups for the week ahead 31.10. - 04.11.2016

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal for the week.

Price is in a big range highlighted in grey. Price did break a support level, which is bearish (marked in yellow). The fact that price was not able to close above 1,10 puts my bias in favour of the bears. However, we have a Bulligh Engulging Pattern which is a bullish reversal signal. With the Non-Farm Employment Change this friday, I am not keen on trading this asset. There are valid reasons for bulls and bears. My bias is rather bearish with a close below support. Now price is testing this level as resistance. We may get a move well above 1,10 only to fall back and close below 1,10. If I happen to get a trade I will look to take profit rather sooner than later. A daily close above 1,10 might signal some strength. A nice profit target would be the bear fractal level.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal for the week ahead.

Price performed a nice bounce of range support and is heading back to range resistance. Basically I am bullish above 1,45. However, we are close to range resistance. As long the range holds, range tacktics apply. I am looking for a bounce off range resistance, If I find a long setup on a pullback, my profit target would be range resistance.

AUD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

Price attempted a break of resistance, but failed to close above and formed a Shooting Star Pattern. This failed breakout puts my bias in favour of the bears.

CAD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

My bias remains bearish. Last week formed an Inside Candle. A break below would confirm the bears.

AUD vs NZD

Bearish bias for the week.

It was not easy to get a trade on this pair last week. The bias remains bearish for the week ahead. It seems resistance is holding true.

EUR vs NZD

EUR/NZD is in a range highlighted with the grey square. Price did touch the yellow support zone and bounced off. We have a weekly Inside Candle. The bounce signals already that support is holding. My bias is in favour of a test of range resistance. The 1,55 level is interesting and may be the key level to keep an eye on. I am not interested in trades at the current level. If we get a move back to the yellow zone I'll get more interested. This is definetely a currency pair to keep an eye on on.

NZD vs CAD

My bias remains bullish for the week. But I am not as bullish as I was last week. Price is in the vicinity of the ATHs which I updated just recently. I'll be bullish on pullbacks (as long price remains above 0,95) and bearish the higher we get inside the red zone.

USDOLLAR

I do not trade this asset. But I like to keep an eye on this to gauge USD strength/weakness. Structurally the asset looks strong. However, price failed to break above the range which gives me a bearish bias for USD for the week. This translates to rather weak USD. This may be an indication that EUR/USD has a good chance to break resisance level highlighted with the yellow circle.

DAX30

Bearish bias for the week.

Price failed to break resistance and formed an Inside Candle. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. A break below would signify a bearish move back to former highs. The weekly close will give more light to the most porbable path of this asset..

EUR vs JPY

EUR/JPY is in a range since some time, which makes trading this asset rather difficult. I'll be only interested in this asset as price aproaches the edges of the range. Currently it seems like there is a good chance for price to reach range resistance. Last week closed as a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. As long price is in the middle of the range, I have no interest in this pair.

USD vs JPY

Price is at an interesting level. There is no signal on the weekly timeframe yet. While I see a chance of a run to range resistance on EUR/JPY I am rather bearish USD/JPY. The weekly close will shed more light. It will be interesting to follow the path of both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. Normally both move in lockstep. If one moves higher while the other moves lower we'll have what I call market divergence.

USD vs CHF

Bearish bias for the week.

The Bearish Engulfing Pattern below 1,00 puts my bias in favour of the bears.

EUR vs AUD

This is an interesting asset. We had a break and close below support. Last week closed as a Bullish Engulfing Pattern with a strong rejection of lower prices. We normally get a break of a resistance follwed by a pullback. Here we may have the desired pullback. But it may also be a sign of a reversal. For now I see a pullback to resistance. As long resistance holds, my bias is bearish.

US Oil

Bearish bias for the week.

I have been following this asset for some time now and mentioned that I am looking for a close above or below the yellow zone to clearly define a bias. Now that we got the close below the yelow zone with a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, my bias is in favour of the bears.

Final note:
This week is filled with major news, with the most important one on friday. I am not keen on trading this week. I will be looking only for perfect setups. If I happen to get open a trade, I will be looking to keep my stops tight and will move them to Breakeven as soon as possible.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 24.10.-28.10.16

EUR vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

With the rejectin and close below 1,10 my bias for is bearish. Looking for 1,10 to hold as resistance. Be aware of support where the weekly closed. Price is at an interesting level. I'll be only interested in convicing setups. 

EUR vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

Price is inside the range marked in the square. Last week did bounce off the range support. The long lower wick presents buying pressure. Adding the close above 1,45 puts my bias in favour of the bulls. This is not a nice setup but worth to keep an eye on.

AUD vs CAD

Bullis bias for the week.

AUD/CAD is an interesting pair that I have been monitoring for some time. The yellow zone has reacted as resitance. But it seems like we are going to see a break of resistance. The previous bearish setup did not have follow through. Last week made a strong bullish candle engulfing the previous one. I do not like to call this a Bull Eng Pattern because of the location. But I like the shape of the candle and the location. A strong move above parity sets my bias in favour of the bulls.

CAD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week ahead.

We have a Dark Cloud Cover just below the 80 level. This sets my bias in favour of the bears. I will be looking for possibilities to add to the existing position.

NZD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

Wo do not have a clear cut signal. Last week candle formed a long upper wick. This is not really a Pinbar / Shooting Star. However, the long upper wick shows rejection of 75 which is a sign that bears are present. It's the location that makes this candle interesting.

GBP vs CAD

Rather bullish bias for the week.

We do not really have a strong signal. But I like how price respects 1,60. We are in a bearish trend. Price moved 5.000 pips this year. And there is still potential to reach the ATLs another 1.000 pips down. But we never have a straight line. A pullback is due. We may see a test of 1,65 (or even 1,70). I was looking for long setups last week, but did not get my entry.  As stated above, my bias is rather bullish. This asset is not one of the very interesting assets. You might be better off looking at a different pair. However, it is good to keep an eye on this.

AUD vs NZD

Bearish bias for the week.

Price did react at resistance. My bias for the week ahead is bearish. We may see a move to 1,05. Depending on how the week ahead closes we might see a test of the ATLs in the future. It seems like we may be forming a range and price is at range resistance.

EUR vs NZD

Mixed signal.

With the strong bearish candle below 1,55 I am bearish. However, price is at support also which is potentially bullish. The low of last week candle until 1,50 is a support zone. There may not be a trade next week. The next week close is going to be interesting.

NZD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week ahead.

Price formed a strong Bullish Engulfing Pattern with a close above 0,95. This sets my bias in favour of the bulls. I am aware that price is just below ATHs and we may get a bounce inside the red zone. But the weekly signal is bullish. So I will be looking for both, longs on a retrace and shorts in the red zone.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal for the week.

With price below 115 I am rather bearish. But we have a small range and price is at range support. The trend is bearish though. And this puts more weight in favour of bears. That's why I'd be more interested in bearish setups.

USD vs JPY

Mixed signal for the week ahead.

The trend is bearish. And we are at a possible range resitance. We do not really have a confirmed Candlestick pattern that is bearish yet. Last week formed an Inside Candle. A break below would be bearish. 

AUD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

We do not have a strong weekly signal with last week close. But the rejection and the small candle puts my bias in favour of the bears. Price was not able to move above the 80 level and formed an Indecision Candle with a rather long upper wick.

AUD vs USD

Rather bearish bias for the week.

AUD/USD remains interesting. While above 0,75 I am rather bullish, we have a rejection of the resitance level marked with the grey square. 

EUR vs GBP

Bearish bias for the week.

I was looking for a short trigger last week but failed to get my trade. With the close below 0.90 my bias is bearish. This goes in line with my anaylsis on other EUR pairs where I have a either a bearish bias or a rather bearish bias. GBP shows signs of strength. How strong the GBP is and how long the strength is going to hold is uncertain. But for now we have signs of strength in favour of GBP. 

NZD vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

The setup is bullish. However the long upper wick diminishes the bullish strength a litle bit. We do not really want long upper wicks when we look to go long. Anyway, we have a weak Bullish Engulfing Pattern. The Channel and the bir round number are giving nice confluence. A close above the parallel red lines would be a strong bullish signal. 

USD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

We had another close above the range resistance level with a stong bullish candle forming an Outside Candle which is a bullish continuation candle. This sets my bias in favour of the bulls.

US Oil

This Asset is still in the vicinity of resistance. Since two weeks price is not able to break above nor below. While the overal market structure suggests bullishness, the recent candles signal bearishness. US Oil and USD/CAD are strong negative correlated. We have a bullish signal on USD/CAD which would signal a rather bearish US Oil. A break below would confirm this chain of thought. 

GER 30

Bullish bias for the week.

The bounce of 10.500 sets my bias in favour of bulls. However, price is at some resitance. It is not a strong resistance level. But the yellow zone presents a trouble area. 

JPN225

Bullish bias for the week.

The strong close above 17.000 and above the previous swing high puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

There are some nice signals for the week ahead and some rather weak signals. My focus will be on the strong signals while I'll also keep an eye on the other assets. I won't be searching a tread. I am rather interested in how each single asset develops to seek out futuer opportunities. Not taking a trade is also a position.

A cross curreny analysis shows me CAD weakness. While USD seems strong I get a different signal on NZD/USD. NZD is a difficult asset. NZD shows strength on some pairs and weakness on other pairs. JPY seems to be strong.

Happy trading,

TT

Trades I took this week 17.10.-21.10.16

GBP vs AUD

 

Price formed a narrow range and price was sitting at support. I took quick profit on this trade as GBP is still week. Price was not able to break the log wick so I gave this a shot. In the setups for the week ahead (here) I was talking about GBP/JPY. But GBP/AUD was favourable due to the smaller stop. I did opt for a quick profit to be on a risk free state and closed the remainder after price showed signs of selling pressure.

USD vs JPY

Edit 21.10.2016

Since there was a BOJ speach today I lowered the stop on one position. I did not want to be in full position before a bankster speech. One position got stopped.

Unlike the CAD vs JPY trade, I was not really able to take profit, so one way to reduce risk was to narrow down the stop on one position.  This way I reduce my JPY exposure before a bankster speech.

Update 26.10.2016

Finally the remaining part of the trade got stopped. This trade was worth only a couple pips. My loss was less with my exit management compared to what it would have been originally.

AUD vs CAD

Price was at an interesting location and formed a signal. I took the trade based on the m5 timeframe. News kicked me out. Am glad slippage is at a minimum.

AUD vs CAD remains interesting.

CAD vs JPY

I almost got stopped out. CAD made strong moves today. Am glad my stop was high enough.

Edit 21.10.2016

I did take half profit on this trade due to BOF speach earlier friday and went to bed. I slept very well. I did reduce my exposure and was able to take some profit, while giving me the chance of possibly ride this further south. 

AUD vs NZD

I did not talk about this asset in the setups for the week ahead section for this week, because this pair did move already a lot. When I saw the setup, I took it. You can still see the original trade with the original entry and stop. Now it is time to move the stop to breakeven.

Edit 20.10.2016

There were important AUD news while I was sleeping. The employment change is negative (exp. 15,2K, act -9,8K), the emplyoment rate is positive (exp. 5,7%, act. 5,6%). Now I do not blame the news alone for the strong move down. I do incorporate fundamentals into my trading decisions, but my trades are based on technicals. I knew this pair made a stong move north and was not expecting a strong continuation this week. I did spot my chance and took the shot. Am out for BE with slippage.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 17.10.-21.10.16

Hi dear readers.

As I was out of the house yesterday, I was not able to publish which pairs I will be keeping an eye on. There are some interesting developments that I want to share.

EUR vs USD

Last week I was mentioning a rejection candle. That candle did get violated to the down side.

My bias for the week ahead is bearish on EUR/USD. We had a strong bearish candle with a close below 1,10. It is interesting that the close is right on support. Depending on USD performance, we may get follow through or a bounce. The strong bearish candle puts more weight for the bears. Even thoug my bias is bearish I won't disregard bullish setups. But these need to be picture book setups. Ideally I can manage to get a long trade set to Breakeven and a Short trade at a level of interest. This way I let the market decide where to go. But this is a difficult task. 

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

A Bearish Engulfing Pattern with a close below 1,45 sets my bias in favour of the bears. Prive made a strong move south last week and may stall this week. 

AUD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

Last week closed as a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. But price was not able to close below parity. I did highlight the resistance level some time back and mentioned that a move south is likely. See here and here. A close below parity would have been favoured. But we do not always get what we prefer. Anyway, my bias is bearish for the week ahead. We did get a close above resistance which should act as support. But the bearish pattern gives me a bearish bias. 

EUR vs NZD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR/NZD is interesting. Price is in a range and did bounce off resistance. We had a close below 1,55. The long lower shadows/wicks to the left suggest bullish potential. However, my bias is bearish for the week. If I get my bearish trigger, I might consider taking profits rather early. An interesting level that price is highly likely to reach is the black dashed line. 

NZD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

We did get the bounce off the ATHs. Price is now fairly away from the ATH. With a strong bearish candle my bias is bearish. However, we may get correction. I am rather interested in shorts and would ignore any longs for the time being.

EUR vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

JPY pairs are difficult to trade lately. I did not get my long trade last week. The trigger missed by less than a pip. This week my bias did shift in favour of the bears. Other JPY pairs are not really showing the same picture, which makes trading JPY pairs rather difficult. I go with what I see on the pair I observe. EUR/JPY is about the only interesting JPY pair. I am also keeping an eye on CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY. But these pairs did not give a weekly signal. That's why they are not listed here.

GBP vs JPY

This pair is displayed to present the difficulty of gauging JPY pairs.

The Hammer like formation is a bullish signal. While I have a bullish bias on GBP/JPY I have a bearish bias on EUR/JPY. JPY is giving mixed signals, which makes trading JPY pairs rather hazardous. A test of 130 is highly likely. Both lower wicks show a rejection of lower prices. 

AUD vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

0,75 did hold as support. The Trendline showed confluence. There is a good chance price will move back up to test resistance. Ideally I get a long trigger and price eventually break resistance presented by the upper wicks to the left. 

EUR vs AUD

Bearish bias for the week.

 Price did make a strong move south and closed below 1,45 in the vicinity of support (highlighted in green). My bias is bearish. But I am aware that price is at support. It is the first time since November 2015 that price was able to violate and close below 1,45. This sets my bias in favour of bears even though we closed inside the support zone. A test of 1,45 is highly likely and very favoured.

EUR vs GBP

Bearish bias for the week.

Interestingly last week closed as a small Shooting Star. I do not really like to refer to this candle as a Shooting Star since this candle formed inside the long upper shadow/wick of the previous candle. But the Shooting Star like candle presents rejection of higher prices. Most GBP pairs did form a long wick the week ahead giving me a long bias for last week. (See here) 

Among the GBP pairs, EUR/GBP is the most interesting pair followed by GBP/JPY). Putting JPY inot the equation I prefer this (EUR/GBP) more due to mixed signals regarding JPY.

There is so much more to talk about GBP, but it would get very confusing. One thing to note is, that all GBP pairs were not able to violate the lower wick of the previous week. Meaning all GBP pairs formed Inside Candles. However, considering the overall market structure and past performance of the GBP pairs, we see that GBP did violate lower wicks in the past and made at least 2.000 pips moves south. This makes GBP very difficult to trade.

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

Last week I had a bullish bias due to the violation of range resistance. I did not get a long trigger last week. This week my bias is bearish with a a close back inside the range resulting in a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. This Bear Eng Pat is not an ideal formed Bearish Engulfing Pattern. But it is one. Range tacticks come in play. I will be keeping an eye for short setups this week.

US Oil

Bearish bias for the week.

Price made a close above the 50 level which is bullish. But the shape of the candle is not convincing. Additionally price shows signs of bouncing off the resistence level marked in yellow. Ideally I am able to add to my existing position riding this asset south. The structure appears bullish with higher lows. However, US Oil seems to run out of steam and a move south is likely.

Fnally I want to present another pair that is very interesting for the future. 

NZD vs USD

No signal yet. 

NZD/USD as approaching an interesting level. My expectation is a bounce off this level. But there is no signal yet. We have a TL in confluence of a horizontal support level giving this a higher likelyhood of bouncing off the 0,70 level. but this is future music. A weekly close will complete the picture.

Happy trading,

TT