Setups for the week ahead 20.02.-24.02.17

EUR vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. Price did pring a Hammer above 1,05. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

EUR vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly timeframe. As mentioned last week (here) price was sitting at support and we had a  test of support with last week close. The Hammer candle puts my bias in favour of the bulls. Above support I am bullish. The overall trend is bearish with price pringing lower lows and lower highs. Howver, price seems to enter a range.

AUD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price is at an interesting location and printed an indecision candle at resistance. As long price stays below 61,8 Fib level (as reference) I am bearish.

CAD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. This is an interesting asset worth keeping an eye on. Even though last week formed a Rejection Candle, price is above support. I need more information to derive a bias.

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price did bounce off resistance and is currently approaching support. As long price has not been violated I'll maintain a bullish bias (above support). However, price is has not formed a setup, hence the mixed signal.

GBP vs CAD

This is GBP vs CAD weekly timeframe. This asset is interesing. Currenlty price seems to find minor support. Price has not been able to violate last week and the previous week low. A close below last week/previus week low would be bearish sign. Looking at the market structure, we have all signs of a bearish trend. Lower lows and lower highs. The last low however is interesting. Price did print a lower low. However, it was a gap down. The Gap got filled initially. I'll maintain my short position and give it the chance to prove itself.

AUD vs NZD

This is AUD vs NZD weekly timeframe. Price is approaching an interesting level. As long price stays below the marked level, my bias is bearish. However, we do not have a signal as of yet.

EUR vs NZD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs NZD weekly timeframe. This is an interesting asset. Price did print a Hammer two weeks ago, which bascially is a bullish reversal formation. However, it was not at an ideal location. I do not like the current level as much as the yellow zone. But price did print a bullish reversal pattern at support, which does put my bias in favour of the bulls.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal

This is EUR vs JPY weeky timeframe. There is no setup as of yet, however price is at an interesting level. This level has been resistance, got violated and became support, then got violated again. Last week was not able to violate the low the rejection candle (low of the previous week). Last week indecision candle shows minor support. I'll keep an eye on this pair.

USD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Last week did boune nicely off the orange zone. Unfotunately I was not able to get in. I am keeping an eye on this one. So far there is not really a setup, as price is above support and below resistance.

GBP vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs JPY weekly timeframe. Again an iteresting level to keep an eye on. Among the mentioned JPY pairs, this pair and CAD vs JPY are of most interesting.

AUD vs JPY

Mixed singal.

This is AUD vs JPY weekly timeframe. This pair displays a diffferent picture compared with the other JPY pairs. Basically we have a bearish reversal pattern with the Shooting Star right at resistance. But being so close to support, I am not interested in shorting this pair. I'll keep an eye on this asset as it is highly interesting.

AUD vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is at resistance, and printed a Doji. There is no setup as of yet. But as long resistance has not been violated I'll treat resistance as resistance.

EUR vs AUD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs AUD weekly timeframe. Last week did close as a Hammer above support. The location is not ideal thougth. But the lower wick shows rejection of lower prices hence support. We may see price approaching the support level marked with grea rectangle again.

EUR vs GBP

Mixe signal.

This is EUR vs GBP weekly timeframe. Last week did print an indicesion candle at a level that proved to be support as price was not able to violate low of the previous candle bodies just above the 0,85 level. Above 0,85 I'll maintain a bullish bias. But the more interesting level is the yellow zone a little below 0,85.

NZD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs USD weekly timeframe. While I my bias was bearish last week (see here) based on the Bearish Engulfing Pattern at resistance, this week my bias did shift to neutral. Price formed an Indecision Candle at support with last week close. As the trend is bullish, chances are good we see support holding. The weekly close will shed more light.

USD vs CAD

Mixed singal.

This is USD vs CAD weekly timeframe. There has not been much of change from last week analysis. I am looking for a close above the red horizontal line for a bullish sign or a close below 1,30 for a berish sign. With price at current level, I am on the sidelines.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 13.02.-17.02.17

EUR vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. Last week formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern at an area of resistance. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, keep in mind, price is inside the big range between 1,15 and 1,05. At the moment we don't know if price formed a lower high. A close below 1,05 would confirm this scenario. Being close to resistance, and having a bearish setup is sufficient to have a bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price did close below 1,40 however is sitting on top of support. Price was not able to violate the low of the Piercing Patteren. The bullish candle can be considered as a mother candle, which need to get violated. A close below the current swing low would confirm the bears.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price is at an interesting area. But there is no setup nor signal to define a bias. A close above the 61,8 Fib-Level would be a bullish signal. A failure to do so could be a bearish sign.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price did bounce off range support and the 85 level and formed a rejection candle. Even though the last candle is not an ideal Hammer (Pinbar) it shows support at 85 is holding and there is buying pressure. 

GBP vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs CAD weekly timeframe. This pair remains at a critical level. Last week showed once more the significance of  the 1,65 level. Currently this is a wait and observe asset. If there is no developement I might take off my position and look somewhere else.

AUD vs NZD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs NZD weekly timeframe. AUD vs NZD made a strong performance last week. Basically I am bullish above 1,05 and espscially bullish after such a strong move. However, price is aproaching a resistance level. Price has been in the clear defined range for the secend half of 2016 until today. Until there is a violation of resistance my bias is either mixed or bearish below resistance.

NZD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is NZD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price did bounce off the ATH zone and closed below the 0.95 level. More importantly, the last candle closed as an outside candle comprising the two previous candles. The last week close can be regarded as a modified Evening Star Pattern. There is one thing that needs to be considered. It is support marked in red on the way down.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs JPY weekly timeframe. There is no setup, hence mixed signal. However, the level EUR vs JPY is at, is intersting. As mentioned already, there is no setup, but we can see indecsion at support. Price is close enough at former the former high. This week close will give more information.

USD vs JPY

Mixed singal.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. We have about the same situation as in EUR vs JPY above. There is no setup yet. However an indecision candle at support (marked with grey rectangel). This week close will give us more information.

GBP vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price formed a Pinbar at support. This is not an ideal Pinbar, however it is a Pinbar at an interesting level. The lower wick shows rejection of lower prices. This pugs my bias in favour of the bulls.

USD vs CHF

Bullish bias for the week.

This is USD vs CHF weekly timeframe. Price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at support and made a close above parity. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. This is in line with the bearish bias on EUR vs USD. Adding to the picture USD vs JPY sitting at support would put more weithg on the bulls.

AUD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is approaching resistance, however there is no setup yet. Last week close could be considered as a Hanging Man, but it is not ideally formed. And a Hanging Man needs to get confirmed. As price is approaching resistance I will keep an eye on bearish setups. The resistance zone I am observing is marked in yellow. 

NZD vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is NZD vs USD weekly timeframe. I was talking about this asset last week and that I will keep an eye on shor setups as it approaches resistance (here). While there was no setup last week, we do have a setup this week. Last week did close as a Bearish Engulfing Pattern at resistance. 

USD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is USD vs CAD weekly timeframe. I have not talked about this asset for some time. Price is at an interesting level. 1,30 level seems to be a level that is tought to break. Last week formed as an Inverted Hammer. I do not like this pattern much, but it is a bullish reversal pattern. I am more interested at the level this asset is sitting at, that's why it is metioned this week. I am looking for a close above the horizontal red line to confirm the bullish bias. A close below the 1,30 level would be considered as bearish.

US Oil

Mixed signal.

This is US Oil weekly timeframe. US Oil and USD vs CAD are strongly negetavie correlated. If one goes up, the other goes down. Sometiems we can derive a bias by looking at the other. In this case US Oil confimrs only that price is at an interesting level and that it needs to go somewhere eventually. US Oil is sitting on top of support just below resistance, just as USD vs CAD is. 

A cross currency analysis points to USD Strength. I would not take the overall USD strength as a sign to go long USD vs CAD and short US Oil. However, USD strength could be considered with USD vs JPY sitting at support. It puts more odds in favour of a bullish USD vs JPY. 

Further, with AUD vs NZD approaching resistance, and a bearish bias on NZD vs CAD and bearish bias on NZD vs USD puts more weight on a weak NZD. This puts more odds in favour of resistance holding on AUD vs NZD. 

Looking at AUD and CAD we can come to the conclusion that there are signs for AUD weakness and signs for CAD strength. This would put odds in favour that AUD vs CAD possibly might not break the 61,8 Fib-Level. 

A final not on the cross currency analyis. The cross currency analysis is not designed as a setup. But it helps drawing conclusions on certain setups. It is designed to help the decison making process when trading.  As an example, this helps me to avoid short positions on USD vs JPY. It does not mean that a short in USD vs JPY is not going to be profitable. Anything can happen in trading. However, it reduces my trading activity, which more than likeky is beneficial for my account. 

Thanks for reading. If you have any question please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT

Trades I took this week 06.02.-10.02.17

As I was travelling I was not really able to publish all the trades I took this week.
This trade is one that still is open.

CAD vs JPY

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 06.02.-10.02.17

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. The break below range support in December last year (talked about here and here) did prove not to be a sustained break. Price did bounce off support and is currently approaching an interesting level. This level may prove to be strong enough to reverse the up move. We need another week to define a bias. While I am bullish above range support, I am not much inclined to look for long setups next week.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed singal.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly chart. Price is sitting on top of 1,40. Basically I am bullish above 1,40. However, previous week did bounce off resistance and formed a Dark Cloud Cover, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Currently this asset is sitting between support and resitance. I could look for a long setups being so close to support. A weekly close will tell us more.

NZD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. In my prvious report I did highlight this level and was skeptical of the move higher (here). Last week did was not able to break the level and made a bearish close without moving up. This shows me that resistance is holding and sets my bias.

GBP vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs CAD weekly timeframe. Last week I mentioned that I doubt the sudden GBP strength (here). The close below the Doji (can be regarded as a Shooting Star also) sets my bias in favour of the bears. However, price is at a critical level and needs monitoring. Ideall I am able to add to my existing position.

AUD vs NZD

Mixed singal.

This is AUD vs NZD weekly timeframe. This asset has not been easy to trade. I did only monitor AUD vs NZD as it is and stays at an interesting level. I do not really trade trendlines, but it is interesting to see how nicely this assets reacts to the trendline. Together with the level of support we have a triangle. We need a weekly close to set a bias. Basically my bias would be bullish for next week. But hitting the trendline, my bias is not bullish. I will not be looking for long setups but might get tempted to take short trades due to being so close to resistance.

EUR vs NZD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs NZD weekly timeframe. Basically my bias is bearish below 1,50. However, price failed to break the support of the Bullish Engulfing Pattern which diminishes the bearishness. The weekly close might give a setup for next week. For now I see price at support. This asset may be at an early stage of another range.

GBP vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs USD weekly chart. Last week did cose with a higher wick. This is not an ideal Shooting Star. But it shows rejection of higher levels.

EUR vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

This is the weekly timeframe of EUR vs JPY. Price has failed to break above resistance and formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern with last week close. This puts my bias in favour of the bears.

USD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price performed a strong bearish close, righ at the last week low. This sets my bias in favour of the bears. Last week I took the two rejection candles as a bullish indication and was more interested in bulls (here). However, with last week close my bias is bearish and in line with my thoughts on EUR vs JPY.

GBP vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs JPY weekly chart. Last week did close as a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. The two bullish candles prior to last week may have been merely a pullback. The Bearish Engulfing Pattern puts my bias in favour of the bears.

AUD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs JPY. Even though there is no confirmed pattern, my bias is bearish for the week. Price is inside the resistance zone. As long price has not violated resistance, I treat resistance as resistance. Ideally we get a strong bearish close, which would confirm the Hanging Man.  

USD vs CHF

Mixed signal.

This is USD vs CHF weekly. There is no setup as of yet. However, price is at an interesting level. Even though it appears as support got broken, it is not a strong close below support. Next candle close is going to be interesting. 

AUD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Above 0,75 I am bullish. However, price is approaching an interesting level that has proved to be resistance. Below resistance I am bearish. So I need another weekly candle to define a bias. I am very curious about how the week will close.

EUR vs AUD

Mixed signal.

This is the weekly timeframe chart of EUR vs AUD. Price is at an interesting level and very worth to keep an eye on. So far price failed to break support and is currently inside the support zone.

EUR vs GBP

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs GBP weekly chart. Basically last week close would set my bias as bullish. We have a Piercing Pattern at 0,85. The overall strucuture is bullish. But we have first sign of a shift in trend. with a lower high.

NZD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs USD weekly timeframe. There is not really a setup to define a bias off. However, price is approaching a level of resistance. I will be looking for short setups at resistance.

GBP vs AUD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs AUD weekly timeframe. Price formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern and closed below 1,65. This sets my bias in favour of the bears.

Happy trading,
TT