Setups for the week ahead 24.04.-28.04.17

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is inside a range, that is inside a bigger range. Since 1,05 has acted as support since Feb 2015. Currently this asset formed a second high at the same level indicated with the red line. Below this resitance level I am bearish. It will be interesting to see if this level will be tested and honored or if we see a break of that level. For now I do not really have a setup. 

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly timeframe. The Bullish Englfing Pattern above 1,40 basically puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, price was not able to close above 1,45 nor was price able to violate top of the Bearish Engulfing Pattern right at the left. This diminishes the bullish outlook based on the Bull Engulfing Pattern. I would tend to look for bearish setups at resisance (current levels).

AUD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price formed a three candle reversal pattern names Morning Star at the 1,00 level. This is a bullish sign and puts my bias in favor of the bulls. Price has formed successive higher lows which is also bullish. The final confirmation of the bulls would be a violation of resistance marked in yellow. Currently price is some distance away to worry about resistance. I personally do not like to trade this far above support, but the setup is a valid bullish signal. This means I am more interested in long setups and tend to avoid shorts.

GBP vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs USD weekly timeframe. Price did break above the range resistance level. This is basically a bullish signal. However, at the moment we cannot tell if it is a valid break or a bull trap. I would have favoured a stronger break of that level. And price is just below the next resistance level marked in red. We may see a pullback to the former resistance level. Then either old resistance/now support will hold and we'll see a continuation or price moves back to ATL for another test. 

EUR vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price formed a Piercing Pattern at/above 115. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

GBP vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at a previous support level and above 135. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. A close above 140 would have been favoured though.

EUR vs GBP

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs GBP weekly timeframe. Price is sitting on top of support. This is basically bullish. However, there is not a setup to define a bias yet. As long support has not been violated the bias will be bullish. But we need a setup. The wick inside the zone indicates support. But next week may dive deeper into support to close back above. Or we see a violation next week. Time and price will tell.

US Oil

Bearish bias for the week.

This is US Oil weekly timeframe. Price formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern below the 55 level. This setup puts my bias in favour of the bears. Market structure has formed higher lows but fails to make higher highs. With the Bearish Engulfig Pattern we may have formed a lower high. For now we have support with the next fractal level. If that gets violated we'll most likely see a test of the 45 level.

This week there are three assets with a clear bias. These are EUR vs JPY and GBP vs JPY both bullish for the week,and US Oil bearish for the week. The clear bias is no guarantee for a successful trade. And just because the bias is established does not mean the asset is going to move accordingly. However, the bias helps to reduce the unlimited trading possiblities. If I follow my bias I only have one direction to trade so my I can ignore potential long setups in the case of a bearish bias respectively short setups in the case of a bullish bias.

Before I finish up the weekly analyis I would like to have a look at the USDINDEX

This is FXCM USDINDEX weekly timeframe. As indicated in the chart, price has not violated support and formed an indecision candle. This is not a setup yet, but indicates potential strength. Taking this thought into consideration the mixed signal gets more bearish weight, being at resistance. With GBP vs USD close to resistance may confirm that we will at least see a run back to the breakout level.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 10.04.-14.04.17

EUR vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. With USD strength in the background I am rather bearish this asset. As price is in the vicinity of support there might be some sort of pullback so price is not at an ideal level to short. As price pulls back, I'll keep an eye on short setups on pullbacks.

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly timeframe. The original bias remains bearish. last week did close as a doji but the Bearish Engulfing Pattern is still valid. Looking at Market Structure we have early signs of a possible trend shift with a recent break of a lower high. But ultimate structure shows lower highs. A break above the Bearish Engulfing Pattern will confirm the new trend. A break below will confirm the bearish trend. This week may be the week that might confirm the bulls or the bears. For now I maintain my bearish bias.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price shows hesitation of moving lower. This is rather bullish. The lower wicks right on top of support give me a rather bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs NZD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs NZD weekly timeframe. This asset is labeled as 'mixed signal' but it looks rather bullish for the time being. The reason for labeling this asset as mixed signal is, there is no setup yet. Last week candle shows signs of rejection. The two lower wicks confirm there is support at the current level. As long this level has not been violated support holds true. This is a successful test of support. This scenario was talked about end of March (first mentioned here).

GBP vs USD

Bearish bias for the week. 

This is GBP vs USD weekly timeframe. Price formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern at the resistance level and closed below 1,25. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. Keep in mind, price is in the vicinity of ATLs that have recently been formed. This means I am more than likely to work with profit targets within the red zone as the red zone may prove to be the ultimate low for this asset.

USD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Last week Pinbar along with the rejection the previous week put my bias in favour of the bulls.

NZD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price did confirm my bearish view with the close below the congestion zone. This is basically bearish. But being just on top of support am inclined to look for a trade breaking the low of last week. Instead I'll look for a test of the congestion low price broke last week.

GBP vs AUD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs AUD weekly timeframe. Last week almost formed a Doji. We have an Indecision Candle inside the upper wick of an Indecision Candle. This shows me resistance to move higher. If price has a hard time to move up, then there is a higher likelyhood of price moving down. Price was not able to violate 1,65 which adds further bearishness. A weekly close above the Doji and idealla above the last Bearish Engulfing Pattern (seen on the left) will terminate the bearisness until price reaches 1,70 area. But currently price seems more likely to move back to the yellow rectangle around 1,60 area.

Before I close this week analysis I'll have a closer look at the USD.

This is FXCM USDOLLAR weekly timeframe. Last week did confirm my bullish bias. The next resistance level I keep an eye on is a little below 12,500. Untill then price is bullish and should not face much turbulence on it's way up.

This confirms the bearish bias on EUR vs USD and GBP vs USD. And this also adds weight on my thoughs about NZD vs USD where I am waiting for a test of the previous congestion zone.

A look at EUR vs GBP should reveal which of the before mentioned pairs would be a better asset to short.

This is EUR vs GBP weekly timeframe. Currently it is not really easy to establish a solid bias. Price is testing a support level, but a better support level is further below (yellow rectangle). We may see a test of that level. Ultimately this is bullish EUR but for the week ahead, the signal is mixed.

Since EUR vs USD has already made a bearish move and GBP vs USD now formed a freash bearish setup, I'd tend to go with GBP vs USD. However, both assets are bearish.

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week 03.04.-07.04.17

EUR vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. Price formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern at resistance. This puts my bias in favour of the bears.

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly timeframe. We have a Berish Engulfing Pattern off the resistance level highlighted. More importantly, we have a bounce of 1,45. This puts my bias in favour of the bears.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Last week I did mention that the break below may be a bear trap (here). Price formed an Indecision Candle with a slighlty longer lower wick. In an ideal world, we would have gotten a Pinbar. But we do not always get ideal scenarios. This Indecision Candle is sufficient enough for me to establish a bullish bias for the week..

NZD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is NZD vs CAD weekly timeframe. The red line I talked about last week (here) proved to be relevant. We do have a Bearish Engulfing Pattern off the red line. However, I am not strong bearish as price is still in the vicinity of Support.

GBP vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs USD weekly timeframe. I did label this asset as mixed signal as there is no setup yet. Just like last week. However, I do see a rather bearish touch and will keep an eye on bearish setups. Price is close to resistance. Below resistance I am bearish. We may get a setup next week.

DAX30/GER30

Mixed signal (rather bullish).

This is DAX30/GER30 weekly timeframe. Last week I talked about the Pinbar.  The Pinbar proved to be a rejection of lower prices. See here for last week analysis. Price is reaching a Double Top level, which would be rather bearish. And as long resistance has not been broken, resistance is treated as resistance. However, there is no setup yet. And with the strong surge up, I will be looking for long setups next week on pullbacks. And we know trends last longer than expected. Rather then trying to short a bullish trend, I'll look to go with the trend.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs JPY weekly timeframe. Basically I would be bearish with after the strong close below 120 level. However, price is at support. I do not want to short an asset just above support. I could look for short setups on pullbacks and long setups as price dips in support. Or I rather keep my hands on my lap an observe prices. Which ever it is, I'll keep you updated here in my blog.

USD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price formed a Doji with the Open and Close on top of the support level. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. A Doji alone is not really a setup. But this formation at this location signifies this very level.

SPX500

Bullish bias for the week.

This is SPX500 weekly timeframe. Even though I am weary of the bulls, we are in a bull market. Any trend can last longer than expected. With last week close as a Rejection Candle my bias for the week ahead is in favour of the bulls.

GBP vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs JPY weekly timeframe. We do have bout the same picture as last week (here). Price is still inside the congestion zone. Sooner or later it is going to break out.

USD vs CHF

Bullish bias for the week.

This is USD vs CHF weeky timeframe. In my analysis for last week I mentioned my skeptisim about the bearish indication (here). With last week did close above parity and formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

AUD vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is at range resisance and is bouncing off resistance. As long price stays below resistance I am bearish. The previous week Bullish Engulfing Pattern did not have follow through. The closer price gets to resistance, the more interested I get in short setups.

EUR vs AUD

Mixed sigal.

This is EUR vs AUD weekly timeframe. Price did bounce off the orange rectangel. This level was highlighted and talked about in my analysis for last week (here). I also mentioned there is a likelyhood of price reaching the grey rectangel (last week it was a yellow rectangel). With last week close we have a Dark Cloud Cover formation which puts my bias in favour of the bears. However, as long price has not violated minor support below, I am not bearish but rather neutral.

EUR vs GBP

Mixed signal..

This is EUR vs GBP weekly timeframe. Basically the close below the 0,85 level in combination with the successiv lower highs would put my bias in favour of the bears. But there is a lot of support on the way down. Even though this is one of my favourite assets, I am not much inclined to trade this asset as of yet. Support starts with the recent lower wicks and extends till the yellow rectangle. Any shorts will be vulnerable.

NZD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is still at an interesting level and has not moved much since the previous week. With USD strength in the background, there is likelyhood of breaking out to the downside. But more about this further down in the cross currency analysis.

US Oil

Bullish bias for the week.

This is US Oil weekly timeframe. Price did break out of the congestion zone on the top side. We have a close above the 50 level. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

Coming to the cross currency anaysis.
USD seems to gain strength accross most USD pairs. This is also reflected on the USDOLLAR chart. With EUR vs USD bearish bias and USD vs CHF bullish bias we have two setups in line with eachother. Both setups are reflected on USDOLLAR

This is USDOLLAR weeky timeframe. Last week did form a Pinbar right on top of support, which puts my bias in favour of the bulls. This is in line with my bearish bias on EUR vs USD and AUD vs USD as well as my bullish bias on USD vs CHF and USD vs JPY.
Considering the outlook of USD strength, I am more inclined to look for berish setups on GBP vs USD which is at resistance and a bearish Breakout on NZD vs USD, which is in a congestion zone.

Happy trading,
TT