Setups for the week (01.08. - 05.08.2016

EU

This pair is a bit tricky.
I would not really call this a setup. This is rather my bias for the coming week.
This pair did print a bullish setup. However price is at the range top.



I like this pa setup, but as mentioned price is in a narrow range.



Currently a new high as been formed, which actually is a bullish sign.
But it is also important to notice how the high has been formed. Price was
not really able to sustain the high. So there are two scenarios.
Either we do get a sustained break above the range top, and price is more
likely to go up. Or we have a range play. The levels I will keep an eye on are
38,2 Fib almost in line with pwl and the break and strong close above the local
high. I do not need to trade this pair at all. So if nothing of that happens, I might
just watch and observe what is happening on the screen.

ECAD



Two things make this asset interesting. First, price did break out of the channel.
Second, the close above 1,45. My bias is bullish for the week ahead.

CADJ



I was expecting a bounce off the narrow red zone. And it did happen, but I was not
able to get a trade. My bias for the week ahead is bearish. I will look for pullbacks
to get a decent trade.

GCAD



I like how price is respecting the recent highs. My bias is bearish for the week ahead.
I may not get a pullback entry. A break below seems to be a valid setup. I'll keep an
eye on this pair on lower TFs.
H4 however is in a range. Price is showing downward pressure. A break below followed
by a pullback would be ideal. We do not always get a pullback though. Trade with cautious,

AN



This is a difficult asset. I like how last week played out. My bias is mixed on this asset.
Above 1,05 my bias is bullish, however I am in a short trade. And we have a nice bearish
setup. This pair may attemt to touch its ATL. But that is future music. And we don't know
what the future will serve. We trade what we see. And that is a bearish setup. If my target
gets hit and we have follow through, I still can look for another setup.
What I see on the chart above is a range break and a retest. The strong bullish candle a couple
weeks ago is a strong bullish signal. Hence this asset is difficult to trade at the moment.

ET



This is a tough pair to trade. This asset has been generous recently. I like the location a lot. We have a confirmed Hanging Man formation at ATH levels. That strong move two weeks ago was event driven. We can expect some pullback. I see this pair attemting to move  higher though. We don't know when. So far the bias has shifted downward for the week ahead.

NCAD



I was monitoring this pair but did not get my entry. Price did honor the 38,2 Fib levle well.
Sometimes you see something and have a high expectency trade, but you do not really manage
to get your trade. That has happened with me last week. But that's trading. Not shedding a single
tear on the missed opportunity. My bias for the week ahead is bullish.
This translates to a conflict of CAD bias. Cross curreny analysis shows me strength in favor of CAD
on GBP but weakness on this asset. However, NZD remains strong. Now I need to compare other NZD pairs. We may see another hit of the ATHs or at least a hit of the 0,95 level.

USDX



I am attaching this chart to show my overall bias on USD. My bias for USD is bearish.
I do not really trade this index due to my money management. This asset does not only require
a high margin, it also has a high Pip-Value making this asset less attractive for the time being.
I like to keep an eye on this asset for reference only.

EJ



My bias for this pair is bearish for the week ahead. The weekly bias is in line with the monthly bias.
But there is still some bullishness in the market. The long wick (5 candles left) together with the Bull Eng Pat still show strength. We may still see a move back to 120. But as long we stay below 115 the bearish bias remains intact,

UJ



My bias is bearish for the week ahead. I was looking for a bounce off the yellow zone. The bounce
did occure, but I was not at the computer. Together with the bearish bias on the USD Index, makes this pair a better short as opposed to EJ.

GJ



Another pair I was following this week. Price did play nicely in favor of my bias.
My bias remains bearish for the week ahead. The volatile moves make this pair
difficult to trade.

AJ



My bias for the week ahead is bearish. Same as GJ, the volatile moves make this pair difficult
to trade.

UCHF



I personally do not like the CHF pairs. This pair is the only swissy I look at.
My bias for the week ahead is bearish.

Due to internet connection issues I am not able to continue my analyis on the other pairs.
There are still a couple more assets left that I wanted to have a look at, to define my weekly bias.
Correction, due to maintenance I do not have acces to the trading plattform over the weekend. Sunday will be the next best opportunity to continue my analysis.

Update: Continuing the analysis on the remaining pairs.

AU



The strong close above 0,75 shifts my bias in favour of the bulls. This asset is very interesting.
While the years ahead, this pair was in a downtrend it's the first time price managed to break a high and formed a higher low. Now price needs to break the recent highs to form a new trend.
Since we were in a strong downtrend we may see some sideways movement until price breaks ultimately the recent highs. The red line shows how price broke the range high and came back to
test it. This is how the market communicates. It's just up to us to listen. As my bias is bullish for the
coming week, I will be looking for nice pullback levels to take a trade north. However, I am aware of the resistance at around last month high.

EA



We are at range support. My bias for the week ahead is bullish.
But as you can see, ultimately I am bearish.

NU



I was spot on last week. (http://tradertrade.blogspot.com.tr/2016/07/setups-for-week-2507-290716.html scrol down). I did get to trade the move down to the 0,7 level. Last week I said I rather bullish and expecting a bounce off the 0,7 level. Unfortunately my risk- and moneymanagement did
not allow me to take a trade. My bias for the week ahead remains bullish.

UC



I have mixed feelings regarding this pair. Above 1,30 I am actually bullish. But this pair is in a range and hit its range top. During summer, I expect rather rangy markets. So range tactics apply. Last week did form a rejection candle. My bias for the week ahead is bearish.

GA



My bias for the week ahead is bearish. This matches the cross currency analyis which indicates GBP weakness. However, I do get mixed feelings about the Aussie. Having a bearish bias on AN would make GN a better short. Lets see what other assets are saying until I get to GN.

USOil



I did not really take profit on this asset. Price did move nicely in the end, but without me. That happens. Technically I am bearish this asset. But I see a possible support bounce. The 40 level is
very interesting. I will keep a close eye on this level. This would be great for my existing short position in UC. UC and USOil are negative correlated.

GN



My bias is bearish for the week ahead. This is in line with my cross currency analysis which indicates GBP weakness and NZD strength. However, this pair is aproaching its ATL. The strong close below
1,85 together with the candlestick formation give this asset a bearish outlook. I will keep a close eye on a couple levels. Espescially if price approaches its ATLs I might consider a trade counter my bias.


Happy trading,
TT

A couple trades I took this week (25.-29.07.2016)

EU

7

Price did react at range support. Even though this is a loser, this trade is / was
a good trade. I had a reason to get in. And the reason was valid as you can see.
My stop was just to close. But that was my risk management. News did spike me
out. This will happen at times. Am not upset. Contrary, am happy because the idea
was good. It's just I am not in this move. I decided in favor of a close stop because
of the time of the year. I did not want to be part of the move, if price moves that low.

NJ



Another loser. And another good trade. Stop was just too close.
If you look at this pair now (trade taken 26.07.2016 at 11:10) it
did move nicely in my direction. Just without me.

AJ



The close below the bear Fractal is a good sign.

Update AJ:



EJ



Update EJ:



AN



Update AN:



Update 05.08.16



I did remove the limit order thinking there is strong downside potential. There is strong downside potential, but I did not follow my plan. So I took a BE trade. BE still is a winner. I do not shed a tear for not having taken the profit I was about to take. We never know how far the market will go. It could have stopped at the grey shaded area, which is a nice level to take a trade south. But price moved higher to the level of my entry, which is also a nice level to look for further shorts. But since today is NFP friday, I'll enojy my weekend already.

UC



If this trade does not progress soon, I will close this out
before the weekend.

Update UC:



Update UC 05.08.16:

Today is/was NFP Friday. Together with high impact US news, we had high impact CAD news.
The result is as below.

NFP came in better than expected. 

NFP act. 255 exp. 180

Hourly earning act. 0,35 exp. 0,2%

But unemployment worse act. 4,9% exp. 4,8%

News not as good as it sounds. 

CAD news worse than expected.

Employment Change act. 31,2K exp. 10,2 K

Trade Balance exp. -3,6B exp. -2,6B

Unemployment Rate act. 6,9% exp. 6,9%

The combination of (at first sight) good US news and (at first sight) bad CAD news drove price up.  But I am expecting a retrace/correction to the downside next week. The range this pair is sitting in, is not broken yet. As long range resistance holds tight, I am rather bearish this pair. 

Even though the current rejection candle looks appealing, I am not going to take any position at this hour (shortly before the weekend).

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week 25.07.-29.07.16

The Yen pairs remain interesting. I did keep an eye on EJ, UJ, AJ, CJ, and NJ.
The most interesting was EJ followed by UJ.
While all above mentioned Yen pairs reamain interesting, the most appealing asset is
EJ. Below is the pic. We may already have a setup as indicated in the chart below. I personally favour the zone around the big round nr. But a setup is a setup.



Below are the charts of the other Yen pairs.

CAD/JPY


CJ did print a Shooting Star at the level of interest, which makes this asset very interesting.

NZD/JPY


NJ has been an asset I closely monitored last week. It was rather difficult, so I decided not to post the setup. There were no trades anyway. Again a Shooting Star at a level of interest TL confluence.
I personally don't like this Shooting Star much. But it shows rejection.

USD/JPY



There is not really a setup on the weekly TF. But the weekly shows rejection in a bullish infected market. Bullish infected, because the bulls were stronger than the bears. But the level remains important and shows significance. As long the level is not violated, the level is valid.
I personally do not favour this pair much, because USD is strong also. But if I do get a valid setup, I'll take the trade.

AUD/JPY



AJ also printed a Shooting Star. But I don't like the shape of this candle. Same as most other Shooing Stars presented above. However, it shows rejection of an interesting level. If you look to the left, we see support. Support got broken and should act as resistance, which it did so far. So signs of reversals on a smaller TF are a go.

Important note on the charts: I mentioned it here and there. I want to make sure that it is not overread. The Shooting Star formations presented at AJ, CJ, NJ are not ideally shaped. While I don't like their shapes as Shooting Star, I do like what they show at the levels they were printed. Hence I am not really trading the Shooting Star frormation, but rather the rejection they present.

AUD/NZD



Another Shooing Star. We have rejection of last month and last week highs. If we have follow through, this would make the AJ trade more favourable than the NJ trade.

AUD/USD



Seems I missed a good setup last week. But we are never too late. Rather miss a trade than jump on a trade prematurely. Anyway, back to topic.
While last week rejection candle was interesting, the environment was still bullish. Last week managed to close below 0,75 which puts more significance to the setup. I'll have a close eye on this pair.

EUR/AUD



Price did honor the support zone I drew. This is a sing for more bulls to follow. Ultimately I am bearish this pair, but for the week ahead, my bias is bullish.

USD/CAD



UC is at range top. Price is back at the level I kept an eye on. Use range tactics during ranging markets. That means looking for a resistance bounce. However, USD shows strength. So need to be careful and extra picky.

Making a cross comparrison it seems like AUD seems to show weakness and USD rather strength.

NU is at an interesting level, I will keep an eye on NU as well. I didn't post a chart of NU above, because there is no clear signal. But an interesting level. NZD shows also signs of strength making a cross currency analysis. That would make NZD and USD both strong currencies. This makes trading this pair rather difficult. But I'll take the support bounce if I get a valid signal.

Below is NU



Happy Trading,
TT

Setups for the week 18.07.-22.07.16


EJ is at an interesting level and already formed a PA-Setup.



I'll be keeping an eye on this pair.
But be aware of UJ. UJ did have a strong week but failed to close
above 105. UJ is also at a resistance level but there still exists bullish potential.
As these assets normally move in lockstep, contradicting signals should be avoided.

A Couple Trades I took this Week (11.07.-15.07.2016)

My First Trade this week.

After some time of silence I think it is time to slowly get back to business. I will be looking
for trades. Starting this week I wanted to continue trading but keep my hands slow. But as you will see, I took more trades than I expected. There were some nice opportunities. They will all be presented. Bear with me if I keep the posts to a minimum. I only decided now that it is also time to continue with the blog. The posts will remain on a minimum for now. I am still in Turkey and will stay for some time here.

My first two trades this week. The first one (below) is a failed one.

My first trade of the this week

USOil



The Trade Idea is based on the monthly TF. The weekly did confirm the idea. I took the trade based on the H4 TF. It was my first trade and my first loss.

This is the second trade I took the same day. It's EU



This trade did get stopped out at the end of the week. Basically it's a breakeven trade that I suffered minor slippage. While I personally take BE trades as winners, it will be registered as a loser in the Journal.

USOil again



The original idea was still valid. The Micro structure of the market did shift north so I decided to close the trade and stay flat for the weekend.

NU



This trade is counter my bias. At the time I took the trade, my long term view was bullish.
As you can see the trend is bullish. But we are at an interesting level for a short setup. I trade what
I see. Ultimately I want to long this asset. Since there will be important news while I will be sleeping on Monday, I figured it won't hurt to take some profit now and give the remainder a chance to prove itself.

I did set a target on the remainder. Normally I don't trade with a set target, but due to the time of the year I expect rather rangy markets. So I do set profit targets. The target on the remainder got hit today on a quick spike. I don't know why NZD spiked.




AC



Due to price not moving much in my favour and me not wanting to micor manage the trade, I decided
to put the trade in a risk free state. I took half profit and left the stop where it is. Half TP is slightly more than 1xr. So it's still a good deal. The trade is again counter my bias. Ultimately I am looking to long this asset.

Finally I did close the remaing part of this trade. This asset was not moving anywhere and started to show signs of strength. Ultimately price needs to close above the current yellow area. If it fails to close above and resumes the downward move I still can jump on the train. The ideal setup for a bullish move would have been the yellow area below. But we never know what the market is goint to do next. We only need to be ready to take action.



EL



This is Euro Lira. The first time I trade this asset.
The trade is based on a longer term view. Something important did happen today, just about two hours before the friday close (weekly close if you want). I normally have not fix TP. But after what happened and such a stong spike, I placed the target slighly above 3,30 and got stopped with positive slippage.

Hope you enjoy my posts and are able to grab here and there something. Don't hesitate to contact me here. I will be more than happy to assist.

Green Pips,
TT