Setups for the week ahead 09.04.-13.04.18

This is the first weekly setup for this year. I have been too busy to keep up with the weekly setups. Below I'll share my thoughts on select assets leaning on the monthly (see here).

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. The significance of the 1,60 level is clearly seen on this chart. Price did close above the 1,60 level and immediately corrected more than 500 Pips. The close below the grey box catches my attention. This is an early sign I that we may see a correction. The close below the box puts my bias in favour of the bears for the week. 

NZD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price did react at support. There is some resistance (red horizontal line to the left). If price clears that level, that will be a healthy sign for the bulls. 

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

USD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of USD vs CAD. Price shows reaction at the 1,30 level. Previously we had a Dark Cloud Cover signal, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Price did halt for a week. With last week close we had the follow through. The close below the Mother Candle puts my bias in favour of the bears. However, keep in mind that price did make a new high, which basically is a bullish sign. We need to take everything into consideration. The markets talk to us, it is up to the trader to listen. Immediate structure is bulish, with a high followed by a higher low, than having a higher high. We may see a correction to the 1,25 level. We have to evaluate as time and price progress.

NZD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs CAD. Counter the the rejection of the 0.95 level mentioned in the monthly analysis, the weekly shows a reaction at support (red dashed line). Price did break resitance, came back and gets rejected. This is a bullish sign, hence my bias is bullish for the week. This does not mean I am looking to buy this asset. This analysis helps me to manage my positions. I am aware of the monthly Rejection Candle. 

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy tradig,

TT

Closed trades in March 2018

I have stopped posting past trades about a year ago for variuos reasons. But since I did talk about the significance of the 1,60 level on EUR vs CAD I'll attach the trade I took on this asset. This is also to illustrate what patience can do to your trade. Looking at a longer timeframe may help you to see the big picture better.

EUR vs CAD

Now I'll wait for April close to decide about the next step on this pair. In the monthly analysis I came to the conclusion that CAD appears strong (see here). So it may have been the right move to close the trade at the 1,60 level.

If you have questions, or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the month ahead Apr 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. The chart above shows a shift of the trend. This asset has been in a range leaning back to March 2015. Price did break the range and mark significant signs of a trend shift. I was expecting a correction back to the green level and kept my hands on my lap (see this link for my last EUR vs USD analysis). Price is at an intereting level. We do not really have a setup at this level yet. Ideally I'd like to see a correction from this level and a test of the red horizontal level. For now, I will stay neutral on this asset. 

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. Price is at an intereting level. This asset failed to close above the 1,60 level and price failed to break the swing high. But note that price made successive higher swing lows, which shows bullish preassure. What I see now is, price failed to violate the previous high, which is not healthy for the bulls. Hence I'll refrain from bullish engagements. I did have a long position here, which I closed at about the 1,60 level (see here). April close will shed more light. Unfortunately I won't have the time to do the weekly analysis. It would be interesting to see how the weekly reacts at this level to get early signs.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price did form a bullish Rejection Candle at the 80,00 level. Price failed to violate the previous low and formed a Rejection Candle (a Hammer like candle), which puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I personally would have liked to see a stronger push south with a close at the same level, but we do not always get what we want. We trade what we see. And that is a rejection of the 80 level.

NZD vs  JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

NZD vs  JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs  JPY. Price formed a Doji smack dab at Support. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls for the month. I'd have loved to see a test of the 70 level, though. We may still see a test of the 70 level. But what we see at the moment is a setup at support.

GER30 / DAX30

Mixed signal.

GER30 / DAX30 M1

This is the monthly chart of GER30 / DAX30. The trend is bullish and price formed a Rejection Candle at support. Price was not able to violate the previous low. All these are bullish signs. Go with the trend. As you can see, I did take a trade. But due to seasonality we may see a ranging market. Either I am bullish or neutral. I will stay away from bearish positions for the time being. One form a Riskmanagement is to reduce the unlimited possibilities of trading.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

EUR vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs JPY. The previous month did form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which engulfs 3 to 4 previous candles. Last month failed to follow suit which diminishes the bearish outlook on this asset. Price did break a previous high and may form a new high at the 135 level. We'll only know for sure after the facts. I'll keep my eyes on this asset. I'd like to see a test of the 125 level.

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD. Price failed to close above the previous high and close above 1,30. Further, price formed a Rejection Candle which could be classified a Shooting Star. Ideally I'd like to see a Shooting Star at a swing high. The 1,30 level is a level of interest. And last month candle confirms this level of interest. The rejection of 1,30 puts my bias in favour of the bears.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price has been trading inside the range leaning back to July 2013 (marks the bottom). Price is inside the range, which makes trading this asset hazardous. However, price showed rejection at an interesting level, which catches my attention. The rejection of the range resistance and the parity level puts my bias in favour of the bears.

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the mothly chart of NZD vs CAD. Price shows rejection of the 0,95 level, which puts me on alert. Price is close to the ATH and forms a Rejection Candle. Now it is time to adjust my stops, think about taking profit, and even consider looking for short opportunities. The market will not reverse immediately, but my bias has switched.

Cross Market Analysis

CAD appears to be one of the stronger currencies for the month ahead. So I'll be preferably looking for opportunities to buy CAD. I haven't talked much about AUD as there has not been many setups with AUD. However, AUD appears weak. I'll attach below GBP vs AUD and EUR vs AUD.

 

Both AUD pairs are moving north. EUR vs AUD is in close vicinity to resistance. But currently there are no signs of a reversal. So I'll maintain the bullish bias. GBP vs AUD did break a high and continues with bullish strength.

The cross analysis would not be complete if I didn't look at the USD Index.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USD Index. Price did break a level of interest but is still in the vicinity of support Support and resistance are never a straight line but rather an area. The immediate bias is bearish, as we have firs signs of a trend shift. The long term bias is still bullish. This asset is not helpful to establish a bias for EUR vs USD.

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT