After doing my Due Dilligence (mentioned in "
Back to Business") some time off from Trading I am back and ready to continue with "Setups for the week ahead". So lets get started.
EUR vs USD
This pair is in a range since first quater 2015. See chart below.
Personally I am rather interested in the extremes of the range, meaning to top or the bottom of the range. Trading ranges can be difficult if you are a trend trader. Keep in mind that many traders give back the money they won in a raging market. Anyway, enough of theory. Here comes the practice.
Price was not able to hit range top. Above 1,10 I am rather bullish this pair. But the recent rejection of higher prices indicates this asset might want to hit 1,10 again. We have a Dark Cloud Cover (left of the vertical line). The following candle did somehow confirm the setup with a close below. But there was/is no follow through. As long the bullish candle of the DCC-Formation has not been broken, the DCC is not valid. I am not interested in going long. If we get a daily close below the red line, I might get interested in shorting this asset. It depends on the daily structure though.
EUR vs CAD
This asset is not a good one to trade at the moment. I do get mixed signals.
Above 1,45 I am bullish EUR vs CAD. Price did give a nice bullish signal at 1,45 with a strong Bullish Engulfing Pattern. However, price was not able to violate resistance. Price is still inside the big bullish candle (see red arrow). Even though I have a bullish bias, price is inside the resistance areaa highlighted in grey. The current (last week) candle did form an interesting Candlestick. This candlestick is very tricky. The form is an ideal Hanging Man. At the same time this candlestick shows rejection of lower prices (small grey box touched by the wick). It is too early to talk of a Hanging Man at this point. We need a confirmation candle. I will be looking for long and short opportunities with this asset. Inside the big grey area I am rather bearish. The closer we get to the red line, I get bullish. That does not mean I will buy at the red line and sell inside the grey area. I need a reason to buy or sell. If the market gives me a reason to take action, I will take action.
AUD vs CAD
I have a bullish bias on this pair for the week ahead. However, I am aware that price is close to resistance.
We have a clear cut and strong close above the parity level. This level is an important level. If you scole back you will notice that there has always been reaction at this level. Even though my bias is bullish for the week ahead, I am ready to look for short setups at the yellow square. The yellow square is a strong touble area that I am keeping an eye on.
CAD vs JPY
Mixed signals on this pair.
Basically I am bearish below 80. But the structure shows trouble breaking below. While the trend is bearish, price is sitting on support. See how price is still trading inside the red candle (see red arrow). This makes me not so keen on trading this pair. A close below the bearish candle would be a potent bearish signal. I am ready to go short or long if there is the right setup.
NZD vs JPY
Mixed signal on this pair.
Basically I have a bearish bias. But we are sitting on top of support. I drew a trendline marking a descending triangle. I personally do not like such patterns, but it is good to know about it. Normally a
Descending Triangle is a bearish continuation pattern that forms in a down trend. There are instances where the Descending Triangles form as reversal patterns (normally/traditionally at the end of an uptrend). The reason why I do not like such patterns (i.e. triangles) much is, they are ambiguous. The trend is down. However a change of trend comes with a sidways market. We may get a change of trend here. Be ready to go both directions.
GBP vs CAD
Bullish bias for the week ahead.
Here we have a weak currency competing with a weak currency. This is not a perfect match to say the least. Price was not able to close below the 0,70 line which puts my bias for the week ahead in favour of bulls. But this pair is ranging. And we are in the middle of the range at an interesting level. I am not keen on trading this asset.
AUD vs NZD
Bullish bias for the week ahead.
Price did not make it all the way to its ATL. There was a good chance for price testing its ATL. The strong move up is news driven. Many times a news driven move corrects fast. My bias is bullish, Now I need to ask, why did price stop where it stopped.
Even though I have a bullish bias for the week ahead, I am aware that price stopped at the 61,8 Fib-Level of the recent leg down. And this is also a resistance level (see the narrow, yellos square to the left). The bullish bias does not automatically mean I am looking for longs only.
EUR vs NZD
Bullish bias for the week ahead.
The yellos square to got tested successfully. My bias is bullish for the week ahead. But the weak close above the 1,55 level is troubling me. If you look to the left, this level has acted as resistance before.
NZD vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week ahead.
Price bounced off the ATHs. Price may come back and hang around the ATH. But my bias is bearish.
GBP vs USD
Mixed signals.
Basically below 1,30 I am bearish. But price is on top of support. The candle formation can be regardes as an Inverted Hammer, which is a bullish reversal candle. But this candle also shows rejection of higher prices. A weekly close above will confirm the Inverted Hammer. Above the red support zone I bullish. So I end up with mixed signals. However, if there is something screaming long in the red zone, I am ready to go long.
EUR vs JPY
No clear direction.
Below 115 I am rather bearish. But price action shows rejection of lower prices. A look at USD vs JPY will help me decipher this pair.
USD vs JPY
The trend is bearish in both, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. Price is now at an interesting level. 100 seems to be difficult to break. Even though price action shows downwards pressure, above 100 my bias is in favour of bulls. The two recent bear fractals indicate support at this level. So I am interested in long signals at these levels. This pair (USD vs JPY is more interesting than EUR vs JPY).
GBP vs JPY
Bearish trend but mixed signal for the week ahead.
Price is at an interesting level. The trend is bearish. However, price did not break the 130 level. Price is on top of support.
AUD vs JPY
Mixed feelings.
Basically all JPY pairs show the same thing. JPY strength but sitting on top of support. The most favourable JPY pair so far was USD vs JPY. I like GBP vs JPY too. But there was not candlestick signal. I like the level of GBP vs JPY.
AUD vs USD
Bullish bias for the week ahead.
We have a bullish signal right on top of 0,75. My bias is clearly bullish on AUD/USD. Looking at Market structure, this pair is trying hard to change the trend. 2016 is the first time the this asset was able to break a high. Now price needs to break the recent highs. The wicks above show there is selling pressure ahead. But there is some distance to get there.
Making a cross analysis, shows me rather AUD strength. AUD vs CAD bullish, AUD vs NZD bullish, AUD vs JPY on top of support. EUR vs USD and USDX are in a range. USDX is rather bearish with a close below 12. Only USD vs JPY shows weak bullishness. But there is no candlestick signal to support this bullishness. This makes USD vs JPY not as favourable as mentioned earlier when I was talking about AUD vs JPY. However, I'll keep an eye in GBP vs JPY and AUD vs JPY. Both are strong positive correlated, so I just have to pick the better signal (if I get one that is). Due to the structure and the level, I favour GBP vs JPY opposed to AUD vs JPY.
EUR vs AUD
Bearish bias for the week ahead.
We have a nice bearish signal. My bias is bearish for the week ahead. I'd be interested to short pullbacks.
This is in line with my cross currency analysis about AUD.
EUR vs GBP
Mixed
Basically I am bullish this pair. But price is aproaching an interesting level highlighted in yellow. Market structure also confirms weakness of bulls with bullish Fractals printing in close proximity. We may see this asset ranging for some time. It seems like the range levels are the top fractal and the recent low fractal.
Making a cross currency analysis does support GBP strength. GBP vs CAD and. GBP vs USD show signs of strength. GBP vs JPY is at an interesting level (but there is not candlestick signal to support this as of yet).
NZD vs USD
Bearish bias for the week ahead.
While the immediate trend is bullish, price is attempting a pullback. The overall trend ( top of the chart to the bottom) is still bearish. Price did hit a resistance level. If you look in the midle of the chart, we see a swing low that got hit. The candlestick patterns are bearish indicating a move south. This puts my bias in favour of bears for the week ahead. This is in line with NZD weakness indicated by the other NZD pairs.
USD vs CAD
Mixed
This is an interesting asset. This pair is sitting at range resistance. That means, I am interested in short setups. The range is marked by the parallel lines on top and bottom of the range. Basically I am bullish above 1,3. But in a ranging market range tactics come to play. Last week close is a well shaped pinbar. This could be a Hanging Man (confirmation is required) or a candle that shows rejection of the 1,30 level. It can go both ways.
Making a cross curreny analysis might be helpful here. The cross currency analysis for USD was not ananimous. In fact there were more pairs signalling USD weakness. NZD vs USD was about the only pair signalling USD strength. The cross currency analyis for CAD shows rather CAD weakness.
I might be better of not trading this pair at all. We may see a break and close above range resistance only to see it fall back inide the range next week. I need more information to make a well grounded decision.
GBP vs AUD
No clear signal.
Price is at an interesting level. Last two weeks were strong bearish. But price failed to close below the 0,7 level. The close of the week will give me more information. There are two bear fractals in close proximity. The Piercing Pattern presents untested support. So I'll keep an eye on that level. The cross currency analsis makes this asset less favourable though.
GBP vs NZD
Bullish bias for the week ahead.
Price is at its ATL and formed a Hammer testing the low of the zone. This is in line with the Cross currency analysis.
US Oil
Bearish bias for the week ahead.
Below 45 I have a bearish bias for the week ahead. 45 level has acted as support before. Price was not able to close above this level. Price may attempt to move back to the 40 level where we have support.
Ger 30
Bullish bias for the week ahead.
We did not only have a bullish candlestick pattern, we also made a strong close above 10.500. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls for next week. I favour a retracement to interesting levels to look for long setups.
SPX 500
Bullish for the week ahead.
Simmilar to Ger 30. The strong close above 2.150 puts my bias in favour of the bulls. Price did break its ATHs than came back to test this level as support. Price may try to hit 2.200.
All in all, there are not many clear signals. The week ahead is going to be tricky. In doubt stay out.
Happy trading,
TT
