Setups for the week ahead 27.03.-31.03.17

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. I did have weak bias for the Dollar for last week. My bias was bullish EUR and a test of the yellow zone for last week. See here, if you scroll all the way down, I made a statement about the dollar appearing week ex ante NFP. Price did approach the level I highlighted two weeks ago. Price was not able to penetrate the level. This gives me a rather bearish touch. There is no clear signal as of yet, but I will keep an eye for short setups unless we get a close above the yellow zone. If the yellow zone gets cleared, the next level I have an eye on is 1,10. So far I see more weakness but am ready to let me prove wrong.

AUD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

 

This is AUD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price is testing resistance marked with the yellow rectangle. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. I was looking for a run deeper in the yellow zone, but we do not always get what we want. A follow through on the Dark Cloud Cover would mark a lower top, which would be another sign of weakness.

CAD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price did break out of the small congestion zone to the downside with a healthy bearish candle. This normally puts my bias in favour of the bears. However, price is at support and this break below may merely be a trap. I need further signs to establish a bias. Maybe we'll get a setup for next week. I am ready to look for setups in both ways. But am not eager to take a trade on this asset.

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price is now at a decision point. We have about the same picture as CAD vs JPY. The support level is more obvious here though. The break below support may turn out to be a trap.

AUD vs NZD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs NZD weekly timeframe. Price did form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern at 1,10 and below a resistance level. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. The downside of this setup is that this asset recently broke above a resistance level (marked with yellow). We may see price test this level for a bounce. Only time will tell. For now I'll look for retracements and possibly a short setup on a lower timeframe.

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs CAD weekly timeframe. There is not really a setup, but this asset is at an interesting level. It is worth to keep this asset on the watch list. Price did bounce off the ATH levels (the ATH zone got extended to the top of the wick) previously. Then there was a test of the red zone. Now price is below a resistance level marked in red. I am looking for this level to hold. I am not eager to trade this asset, but will monitor this with a keen eye.

GBP vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs USD weekly timeframe. There is no setup yet. Just like mentioned in EUR vs USD this asset has a hard time moving north. The weekly close will shed more light.
A look at the USDOLLAR might shed more light into this.

USDOLLAR

Mixed signal.

This is FXCM USDOLLAR Index weekly timeframe. Last week did close as an Indecision Candle right on top of support. The level is good, as it is a former high that got tested recently. The Indecision Candle alone is not a setup yet, but it shows that price is at a decision point. A bullish weekly close will signify Dollar strength. This would translate to EUR vs USD and GBP vs USD weakness.

DAX30 / GER30

Mixed signal.

This is DAX30 referrred to GER30 weekly timeframe. Last week close can be interpretet as bullish or bearish. Last week formed an idal looking Pinbar. The lower wick can be interpreted as a rejection of 12.000. This would be bullish. Or it can be interpreted as a Hanging Man which would be bearish. But the Hanging Man needs to get confirmed with a lower close. We may be forming a double top at ATH levels. The weekly close will tell more. I mention this asset because it is at an interesting level and very worth to keep an eye on.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price stopped right on top of 120 with a weekly Indecision Candle. This alone is not a setup, but it shows significance of the 120 level. The former Bullish Engulfing Pattern is in play and may support the prices.

USD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. The support zone (marked with grey rectangel) is still in play. Price is having a hard time to violate the support level, which may be early signs of strength. Again, time (and price) will tell.

Nikkei225/JPN225

Mixed singal.

This is Nikkei225/JPN225 weekly timeframe. Price is in a range and the lower wick shows rejection of the range support level. I tend to take this as a bullish sign. But I do not like to trade far away from support. So I label this asset as mixed signal.

SPX500/S&P500

Bearish bias for the week ahead.

This is SPX500/S&P500 weekly timeframe. Price seems to form a top with a Bearish Engulfimg Pattern with the close breaking below the congestion zone. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. This may also be an indication for the GER30 talked about above.

GBP vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price is still inside the congestion zone showing struggle to move either way. A break and close above or below the congestion zone will give a signal.

AUD vs JPY

Bearish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price did break below with a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. this puts my bias in favour of the bears.

USD vs CHF

Mixed signal.

This is USD vs CHF weekly timeframe. Basically the close below parity would put my bias in favour of the bears. However, I am sceptical of this bearish indication. Price is in the vicinity of the support level confirmed by the previous Bullish Engulfing Pattern to the left.

AUD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is at range resistance and formed an indecision candle at the yellow zone. The yellow zone did prove to be significant with all the hits to the left. The overall structure seems bullish, however as long price is below resistance, resistance comes to play. This would put my bias in favour of the bears. But currently there is not setup, hence the mixed signal.

EUR vs AUD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs AUD weekly timeframe. Price made a nice and strong close above 1,40. This is basically a bullish sign. However, price is at resistance. And as long resistance has not been cleared, I am not bullish. There is a good chance we see a bounce of the orange rectangle and a test of the yellow zone sometime in the future.

EUR vs GBP

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs GBP weekly timeframe. This is an interesting asset and one of my favourites. It is difficult to gauge which one is stronger (or weaker). It seems like price wants to test the 0,90 level but is having a hard time to move. The most recent structure low is higher, so this is a bullish signal. However, price is not able to move up. We did have a Dark Cloud Cover the week before, but there was no follow through. If I needed to trade this asset, I'd look for a daily close below last bullish candle as a sing of weakness. We need patience with this asset (as with all assets, but this one requires more patience). I like to use this pair as a reference when I am trading either one currency pair, but at the moment I can't tell which one is stronger. Time (and price) will tell.

NZD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price is at range support, which basically is bullish. However, price seems to have a hard time to move north. If USD strength kicks in, we will see a break of the range to the downside.

GBP vs AUD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs AUD weekly timeframe. After the Pinbar, price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

Dow Jones / US30

Bearish bias for the week.

This is Dow Jones (FXCM US30) weekly timeframe. This looks like a top reversal. Price made a strong close below the congestion zone at the 21.000 level. This puts my bias in favour of the bears.

US Oil

Mixed signal.

This is US Oil weekly timeframe. This is an asset well worth to keep on the watch list. For two weeks price has not moved much but stalled at about the same level. Sooner or later price will move one way or the other.

GBP vs NZD

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs NZD weekly timeframe. Price is testing former ATL from the bottom. Last week formed a Doji just below resistance. This may be an early indication. We need another weekly close to estblish a bias.

There are many assets giving mixed signal. Maybe a cross currency analysis will give us a clue for the most probable path. Starting with USD we see most currencies at levels of interest. EUR vs USD and AUD vs USD are testing resistance (close to resistance) and GBP vs USD shows struggle moving north. Only NZD vs USD is sitting at support, which diminishes the outlook for a strong USD a bit. The Dollar Index sitting at support with an Indecision Candle may suggest possible Dollar strength. But we can't be sure about that until it happened. Maybe a look at the NZD pairs will show some NZD weakness, which would add odds in favour of my outlook for Dollar strength.

The cross currency analysis for NZD does not give more insight. While NZD vs JPY is sitting at support, AUD vs NZD suggests NZD strength. I like the Doji of GBP vs NZD. If this proves to be weakness, that would translate to further NZD stength. So I would be cautious trading NZD vs USD. It might prove to be healthy to wait for the weekly close.

The AUD shows two assets hinting for Aussie weakness. AUD vs NZD and AUD vs JPY have a bearish outlook. This contradicts GBP vs AUD strength.

The cross currency analysis reveals too many contradictions to give any clue for a specific pair.

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions, or would like to add something please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 13.03.-17.03.17

EUR vs USD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. Price performed a bounce of range support. Currenlty it seems like this asset formed a higher low. A bullish weekly close will confirm the higher low. My bias for the week is bullish.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs CAD weekly timeframe. As there is no setup I label this asset as mixed. However, I am rather bearish this pair. The last two weeks show selling pressure with the rather long upper wicks. Last week formed an Indecison Candle with a rather long upper wick inside the previous candle. This shows me resitance to higher prices. If price does break above the previous upper wick, I will keep an eye on price behaviour at the yellow zone.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price is still at support of the decending channel (flag - see here) support. As long support and previous week Pinbar has not been violated, there is no reason to switch the bias. Last week formed an Indecision Candle inside the Pinbar. A break and close above would confirm the bullishness of this asset.

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Currently there is no setup. However, price is at an interesting location. While I am bearish below the 80 level, price is sitting on support. The level is interesting. This makes it worth to get mentioned here.

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is NZD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price is approaching support. This gives me a mixed signal. The break of the previous low gives this asset a bearish touch. And I am rather bearish. However, Price is at a support level that should not be disregarded. I will keep an eye for short opportunities on pullbacks though.

GBP vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is GBP vs USD weekly timeframe. There is no setup as of yet, But price is approaching an interesting level. I will keep a keen eye on the 1,20 level.

USD vs CHF

Mixed signal.

This is USD vs CHF weekly timeframe. We do not really have a setup yet. But price behavious is suspicious. The current price action is giving this asset a bearish touch. However, there is no setup as of yet. I am observing this asset with interest.

AUD vs USD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Again an asset with no setup. However, the current level price is stitting at is very interesting. This may be the level, where we get a run back to the resistance level (yellow zone).

EUR vs AUD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs AUD weekly timeframe. Price did close nicely above 1,40 which would basically be a bullish sign for me. However, price is at resistance. As long resistance has not been cleared my see mixed signals. The trend is bearish and we may see weakness kick in anytime.

GBP vs AUD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs AUD weekly timeframe. Last week did close as an Indecision Candle inside the Pinbar of the previous week. Support has not been violated yet. My bias remains bullish.

Before finishing the setups for the week I'd like to have a look at what I like to call the cross currency analysis. This week this will be rather difficult. But from my analyisi I get a rather weak outlook for the USD.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 06.03.-10.03.17

I have been absent last week due to travelling. I am still travelling but found some time last night and this morning to continue the weekly setups.


EUR vs USD

Bullish Bias for the week.

This is EUR vs USD weekly timeframe. We have three successive candles with rather long lower wicks, which shows rejection of lower prices. The current level of 1,05 forms the range support which price seems to confirm. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs CAD weekly timeframe. Basically I am bullish this pair with the strong Bullish Engulfing Pattern. However, price moved strongly and is at the vicinitiy of resistance. A weekly close above the resistance level would be a healthy bullish sign. But for now, price can go both ways. At resistance I'll keep my eyes open for signs of weakness. The closer we get to the 1,40 I'll keep my eye open for signs of strength. As long price stays in between support and resistance, these levels will hold until broken.

AUD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is AUD vs CAD weekly timeframe. Price did break a local high above parity. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls for the week ahead. There is still some nice distance to resistance marked in yellow. That would be an area to keep an eye on for a possible reversal.

Note:
Last night I needed to take a break so I am contuing this morning the setups for the week.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is CAD vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price is forming a descending channel which could be a bearish sign. However, at this stage it could be a flag and that would be a bullish signal. I am not trading trendlines nor looking for such formations. What I currently see is a rejection of the 85 level which is support. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. If my analyisis holds true we may be keeping an eye for the break of the flag for further bullish strength and we are in at a low price. If we get a good setup to go long that is.

AUD vs NZD

Mixed signal.

This is AUD vs NZD weekly timeframe. Basically we do have a break above resistance with a close on the top of the candle. This is a bullish signal. However, I prefer breakouts with significant closes above resistance or below support. This puts me on observers mode as the breakout may merely be a bull trap.

EUR vs NZD

Mixed signal.

This is EUR vs NZD weekly timeframe. Basically we have a bullish signal with the strong Bullish Engufling Pattern. Support did hold true (mentioned in here). But price is approaching a resistance level that I first talked about in this post. With price being close to resistance I am not much interested in going long until resistance has been cleared.

EUR vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs JPY weekly timeframe. Price did form a Bullish Engulfing Pattern engulfing the two previous candles. This is a healthy bullish signal. However, price is testing the previous low of the congestion zone (see the first fractal to the left). This is the only thing that is bugging me. The bias remains bullish for the week though.

USD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

This is USD vs JPY weekly timeframe. We have the same pattern as talked about in EUR vs JPY. However, the Bullish Engulfing Pattern on USD vs JPY is not as strong. The downside here is, that price as not able to break the high of the long upper wick two candles to the left and price is below 115. A close above 115 would have been a stronger bullish signal. We do not always get what we want. We need to work with what we get. And that is a Bullish Engulfing Pattern with a rather bitter taste. I prefer EUR vs JPY to this pair.


SPX500 / S&P500

Mixed signal.

This is SPX500 / S&P500 weekly timeframe. Price is in high grounds while DAX is showing resistance in breaking high grounds. I am not yet bearish, however I am suspicious of the move up, Price seems to be weary of progressing higher and may be due for a pullback.

AUD vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

 

This is AUD vs USD weekly timeframe. Price did bounce off resistance and currently approaching support. The resistance level has proved itself. Below resistance I am bearish.

EUR vs AUD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is EUR vs AUD weekly timeframe. Price did bounce off support with a Hammer (see also here). Last week closed as a stong bullish candle also known as a Bullish Belt Hold. This is a bullish sign. All these put my bias in favour of the bulls for the week. I would have preferred a close above 1,40 but the signal is valid never the less. The trend is bearish and we may see a test of resistance marked in red.

EUR vs GBP

This is EUR vs GBP weekly timeframe. Prive did print a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. Further, we have a higher low. These are signs for strength. Hence my bias is bullish.

GBP vs AUD

Bullish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs AUD weekly timeframe. I did label this asset as 'Mixed signal' however I am rather bullish. So fianlly I did decide to go for the bullish bias. Price is at an interesting level and we have a small rejection candle confirming support at 1,60. The rejection candle is not an ideal Hammer as I would prefer a bigger wick and lower prices. However, we do have a rejection candle at an interesting location.

NGAS

Bullish bias for the week.

This is NGAS weekly timeframe. We have two successive Pinbars confirming support. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However with the current gap up, I am less likely to take trades long as price is a fair distance away from support. My bias is bullish, but I may not get a good setup to take.

GBP vs NZD

Bearish bias for the week.

This is GBP vs NZD weekly timeframe. Price is in a range and found resistance at 1,75. As long resistance has not been violated I treat resistance as such.

Thank you for visiting my page. Hope you find the weekly analysis helpful. If you have questions please post them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,

TT