Bearish bias for the week.
We have a strong bearish close below 1,10 engulfing two previous bullish candles. Price did bounce nicely off the resistance level I mentioned in Okt 30th (here). At that time I had mixed signals but the level was marked then. Now my bias is clearly bearish for the week. We are still inside the range marked in the grey rectangle. But we have strong bearish preassure at the moment which may drive price down to range support or to 1,05 level.
EUR vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week.
We have a strong Bearish Engulfing Pattern. Some traders like to call this also a Bearish Outside Bar. For me it is more than enough to call it a Bear Eng Pat as I do not really care much about Outside Bars. The fact the second candle completely engulfs the first candle is what counts. This formation below 1,50 is a bearish sign. Price barely violated range resistance, In fact resistance is still intact. It only got shifted to the upside. I removed rectangle that used to highlight the range. The formation is more than enough. I like my charts simple and clean.
AUD vs NZD
Bearish bias for the week.
This is a difficult asset. We have a nice bounce off 1,05 level with a rather Bull Eng Pat. Price may attempt to last month high black dashed and bull Fractal level. The closer price gets to resistance the less likely I am in taking a long position. The closer we get to 1,05 the more I get interested in a bullish setup. Ultimately we might see price get back to the ATLs on a longer perspective. However, the analyis presented here is only for next week.
EUR vs NZD
Bullish bias for the week.
Price did honour range support highlighted in yellow. We had a wick though support, but it was not enough for a close below. As long support holds I treat support as support. Untill we get a break of range, I will apply range tactics. Range resistance is at last month high or the recent bull fractal levels.
NZD vs CAD
Mixed signal.
We have a weekly violation of ATHs with a strong close above the ATH levels. That is bullish. Last week however formed a Dark Cloud Cover, which is a bearish formation. The trend is bullish. The formation may just be a pullback back to broken resistance. I did list this asset here only to keep an eye on this asset. This is a very interesting pair to keep an eye on. Price broke resistance and came back to resitance. The weekly close will show us, if it is a test of resistance.
GBP vs USD
Bullish bias for the week.
We do not really have a strong bullish formation. But the candle with the longer lower wick and the close above 1,25 puts my bias in favour of the bulls. The lower wick shows me rejection.
GER30 / DAX 30
Mixed signal.
Mixed signal.
The Bullish Engulfing Pattern and the close above 10.500 put my bias in favour of the bulls. However, price is also at resistance. Price did bounce off range support and moved in one week to range resistance. At resistance I will be interested in shorts. The lower price moves, the more interested will I be in longs.
USD vs JPY
Mixed signal.
Basically the strong Engulfing candle and the strong close above 105 are bullish signs. Based on this, my bias is bullish. However, price is at resistance which diminishes my bullish outlook. I will keep my eyes open for long setups on retracements. The closer we get to resistance, the less likely am I bullish. Basically I will look for both. At resistance bearish, on retracements bullish. Only the weekly close will tell me more.
GBP vs JPY
Bullish bias for the week.
There is not much to say. Price made a stong close above 130. 135 may act as resistance. But technically my bias is bullish. I will look for bullish setups on pullbacks. Price may attempt to reach 140 sooner or later.
AUD vs USD
Bearish bias for the week.
Price did bounce off the resistance level I highlighed and talked about on earlier occasions and formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern closeing below the trendline. I do not really value trendlines much. However, price is price is very close to support at 0,75. The strong bearish close adds value to the bears but I do not like to go short close at support. If we get pullbacks, I will keep an eye on bearish setups.
EUR vs GBP
Bearish bias for the week.
Price broke old highs. We have a bullish trend and the bias is counter the trend. Price moved strongly north, it needs to pull back. After such a strong weekly move, I'd expect a consolodation. But I will keep an open eye for bearish setups on pullbacks. There is a chance price wants to test 0,85 or further below the bear fractal level.
NZD vs USD
Bearish bias for the week.
The strong Bearish Engulfing Pattern puts my bias in favour of the bears. The 0,70 level is interesting. We do have a trendline, however price may attempt to test 0,70. We may also see an end of the stong pullback of the longer term bearish trend. Again, the weekly close will shed more light.
USD vs CAD
Bullish bias for the week.
Price did break out of the range and moved higher. The close above 1,35 puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I call the last candle a Bullish Outside Bar. A Bullish Outside Bar is considered a continuation pattern.
GBP vs AUD
Mixed signal.
Basically the strong bullish close puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, price is at an interesting level. We may see some turbulence at the grey rectangle. That's why I am not really interested in longs at the current level. If we do get a pullback, I'll keep an eye on bullish setups.
GBP vs NZD
Mixed signal.
The strong bounce off 1,70 is a strong bullish sign. However, price is not testing former ATLs as resistance. We may see a move up to 1,80 only to fall back below. The only reason I am listing GBP/NZD is, because this is an interesting asset at an interesting location.
Note:
Adding some fundamentals: NZ had an earthquake and a tsunami over the weekend, which will add further bearish pressure on NZD. We may see a weak NZD. This may be helpful with NZD/CAD and GBP/NZD where I had a mixed signal. Taking GBP/NZD as an example the setup is bullish, however close at resistance. Adding the fndamental outlook of a weak NZD would make me rather bullish GBP/NZD. Same goes for NZD/CAD.
Coming to USDOLLAR, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. These are intereting assets. While I am bearish EUR/USD I am bullish GBP/USD. Normally both are positive correlated. I do not want to go one of the pairs long while I am short the other. A look at USDOLLAR might help us out.
USDOLLAR is at range resitance. As long reistance holds, we have to treat resistance as resistance. the structure is bullish though. Inside the range USDOLLAR formed higher highs and higher lows. But failed to break above resistance. If resistance holds, this would translate to bullish GBP/USD and bullish EUR/USD. Since I have a bullish bias on GBP/USD, GBP/USD would be the better long trade. EUR/USD made a strong bearish close as mentioned above, but stopped at support. The structure is rather strong bearish. I'd rather look at GBP/USD for longs and ignore longs on EUR/USD if we get a weak USDOLLAR.
Happy Trading,
TT
Happy Trading,
TT
Keine Kommentare:
Kommentar veröffentlichen