Setups for the month ahead May 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. Price is sitting on top of support. I did mention last month, that I would like to see a correction back to the red horizontal line. Last month did close bearish, which puts weight in favour of the correction. As we are sitting at support, it may pay out to be patient.

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. I had a strong bias for CAD last month (here). I did close my long trade last month at 1,60 level (see here). We have successive higher lows, which shows bullish pressure. This asset may have run out of steam and needs new fuel. Currently the 1,50 level seems to be the next level of interest. I'll be looking for opportunities to short this asset.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price has closed bullish last month. We have a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. I did not get my trade long last month. My bias remains bullish. 

GOLD

Bearish bias for the month.

GOLD M1

This is the monthly chart of GOLD. Price is rejecting range resistance. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

GBP vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

GBP vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs USD. This asset shows a better bearish signal opposed to EUR vs USD. Price shows a rejection of the former ATL, which acts as resistance now. 

USDOLLAR

Mixed signal.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. Currently we see USD strength. Price was able to violate a significant level only to bounce back up. Currently it is too eatly to speak of Dollar Bulls. We need to see mothly close above the mother candle. However, we see signs of support holding. And that is basically bullish.

Ger30

Mixed signal.

Ger30 M1

This is the mothly chart of the CFD for Dax30. We have a bullish signal at a previous resistance leve, which is support now. This basically puts my bias in favour of the bulls. However, the seasonality of equity markets is not in favour of bulls. I am ready to trade both ways. The setup is bullish, so I am more interested in bulls.

USD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

USD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs JPY. Price did close bullish last month and form a Morning Star Pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern. I'd have favoured a close above the 110 level. But we do not always get what we favour, right? 

GBP vs JPY

Mixed signal.

GBP vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of GBP vs JPY. Last month did close as a Rejection Candle, which is a bearish sign. But price is close to a level of interest, which may prove to be support. I might look for temporary short opportunities. Once price closes below 145, my bias will be bearish.

NZD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs CAD. Last month close did form an Evening Star Pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. 

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy trading,

TT

Setups for the week ahead 09.04.-13.04.18

This is the first weekly setup for this year. I have been too busy to keep up with the weekly setups. Below I'll share my thoughts on select assets leaning on the monthly (see here).

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. The significance of the 1,60 level is clearly seen on this chart. Price did close above the 1,60 level and immediately corrected more than 500 Pips. The close below the grey box catches my attention. This is an early sign I that we may see a correction. The close below the box puts my bias in favour of the bears for the week. 

NZD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price did react at support. There is some resistance (red horizontal line to the left). If price clears that level, that will be a healthy sign for the bulls. 

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

USD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of USD vs CAD. Price shows reaction at the 1,30 level. Previously we had a Dark Cloud Cover signal, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Price did halt for a week. With last week close we had the follow through. The close below the Mother Candle puts my bias in favour of the bears. However, keep in mind that price did make a new high, which basically is a bullish sign. We need to take everything into consideration. The markets talk to us, it is up to the trader to listen. Immediate structure is bulish, with a high followed by a higher low, than having a higher high. We may see a correction to the 1,25 level. We have to evaluate as time and price progress.

NZD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

NZD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs CAD. Counter the the rejection of the 0.95 level mentioned in the monthly analysis, the weekly shows a reaction at support (red dashed line). Price did break resitance, came back and gets rejected. This is a bullish sign, hence my bias is bullish for the week. This does not mean I am looking to buy this asset. This analysis helps me to manage my positions. I am aware of the monthly Rejection Candle. 

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below. 

Happy tradig,

TT

Closed trades in March 2018

I have stopped posting past trades about a year ago for variuos reasons. But since I did talk about the significance of the 1,60 level on EUR vs CAD I'll attach the trade I took on this asset. This is also to illustrate what patience can do to your trade. Looking at a longer timeframe may help you to see the big picture better.

EUR vs CAD

Now I'll wait for April close to decide about the next step on this pair. In the monthly analysis I came to the conclusion that CAD appears strong (see here). So it may have been the right move to close the trade at the 1,60 level.

If you have questions, or would like to give feedback, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the month ahead Apr 2018

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs USD. The chart above shows a shift of the trend. This asset has been in a range leaning back to March 2015. Price did break the range and mark significant signs of a trend shift. I was expecting a correction back to the green level and kept my hands on my lap (see this link for my last EUR vs USD analysis). Price is at an intereting level. We do not really have a setup at this level yet. Ideally I'd like to see a correction from this level and a test of the red horizontal level. For now, I will stay neutral on this asset. 

EUR vs CAD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs CAD. Price is at an intereting level. This asset failed to close above the 1,60 level and price failed to break the swing high. But note that price made successive higher swing lows, which shows bullish preassure. What I see now is, price failed to violate the previous high, which is not healthy for the bulls. Hence I'll refrain from bullish engagements. I did have a long position here, which I closed at about the 1,60 level (see here). April close will shed more light. Unfortunately I won't have the time to do the weekly analysis. It would be interesting to see how the weekly reacts at this level to get early signs.

CAD vs JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

CAD vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of CAD vs JPY. Price did form a bullish Rejection Candle at the 80,00 level. Price failed to violate the previous low and formed a Rejection Candle (a Hammer like candle), which puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I personally would have liked to see a stronger push south with a close at the same level, but we do not always get what we want. We trade what we see. And that is a rejection of the 80 level.

NZD vs  JPY

Bullish bias for the month.

NZD vs  JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of NZD vs  JPY. Price formed a Doji smack dab at Support. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls for the month. I'd have loved to see a test of the 70 level, though. We may still see a test of the 70 level. But what we see at the moment is a setup at support.

GER30 / DAX30

Mixed signal.

GER30 / DAX30 M1

This is the monthly chart of GER30 / DAX30. The trend is bullish and price formed a Rejection Candle at support. Price was not able to violate the previous low. All these are bullish signs. Go with the trend. As you can see, I did take a trade. But due to seasonality we may see a ranging market. Either I am bullish or neutral. I will stay away from bearish positions for the time being. One form a Riskmanagement is to reduce the unlimited possibilities of trading.

EUR vs JPY

Mixed signal.

EUR vs JPY M1

This is the monthly chart of EUR vs JPY. The previous month did form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which engulfs 3 to 4 previous candles. Last month failed to follow suit which diminishes the bearish outlook on this asset. Price did break a previous high and may form a new high at the 135 level. We'll only know for sure after the facts. I'll keep my eyes on this asset. I'd like to see a test of the 125 level.

USD vs CAD

Bearish bias for the month.

USD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of USD vs CAD. Price failed to close above the previous high and close above 1,30. Further, price formed a Rejection Candle which could be classified a Shooting Star. Ideally I'd like to see a Shooting Star at a swing high. The 1,30 level is a level of interest. And last month candle confirms this level of interest. The rejection of 1,30 puts my bias in favour of the bears.

AUD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

AUD vs CAD M1

This is the monthly chart of AUD vs CAD. Price has been trading inside the range leaning back to July 2013 (marks the bottom). Price is inside the range, which makes trading this asset hazardous. However, price showed rejection at an interesting level, which catches my attention. The rejection of the range resistance and the parity level puts my bias in favour of the bears.

NZD vs CAD

Mixed signal.

NZD vs CAD M1

This is the mothly chart of NZD vs CAD. Price shows rejection of the 0,95 level, which puts me on alert. Price is close to the ATH and forms a Rejection Candle. Now it is time to adjust my stops, think about taking profit, and even consider looking for short opportunities. The market will not reverse immediately, but my bias has switched.

Cross Market Analysis

CAD appears to be one of the stronger currencies for the month ahead. So I'll be preferably looking for opportunities to buy CAD. I haven't talked much about AUD as there has not been many setups with AUD. However, AUD appears weak. I'll attach below GBP vs AUD and EUR vs AUD.

 

Both AUD pairs are moving north. EUR vs AUD is in close vicinity to resistance. But currently there are no signs of a reversal. So I'll maintain the bullish bias. GBP vs AUD did break a high and continues with bullish strength.

The cross analysis would not be complete if I didn't look at the USD Index.

USDOLLAR M1

This is the monthly chart of FXCM USD Index. Price did break a level of interest but is still in the vicinity of support Support and resistance are never a straight line but rather an area. The immediate bias is bearish, as we have firs signs of a trend shift. The long term bias is still bullish. This asset is not helpful to establish a bias for EUR vs USD.

If you have any questions or would like to give feedback, please them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Happy belated New Year

I wish you all a Happy New Year, lots of success and fun.

Now the first month of 2018 has passed.

I have been very busy since late last year. Due to the errands I have not been able to take care of this blog and keep it up to date. I will do my best to keep this blog with all its sections up to date. There are many articles to come.
I have to take into account the changing situation. So my approach to the market has been modified. The beauty the way I approach the market, it is time indifferent. That means, my trading style is the same, but my focus did shift to the monthly timeframe. Hence the section "Setups for the week ahead" will become "Setpus for the month ahead".
The advantage is, I have a lot of time to do many other things while I am still trading the same way I was trading before. I'll just have to be more patient.

Another thing I am debating with is whether to publish actual and closed positions, as I did when I started this blog. You may have noticed that I stopped posting my live trades long ago for various reasons. Most importantly because, I do not want to be mistaken with a signal provider.

Anyway, I am back and will keep this blog up to date.
As always, if you have any feedback please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 11.12.-15.12.17

EUR vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. Last week failed to violate the 1,50 level and formed a Rejection Candle. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

XAU vs USD

Bearish bias for the week.

XAU vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of Gold. Price did break the higher low to the downside and made a close below 1.250. This puts my bias in favour of the bears. We have the beginning signs of a trend shift.

USDOLLAR

Bullish bias for the week.

FXCM USDOLLAR

This is the weekly chart of FXCM USDOLLAR. Last week close did complete the Morning Star Pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern. But what's more important is, the question wheather this asset built a higher low. At the moment it appears like the establishment of a higher low. The close above the 12 level puts my bias in favour of the bulls. I am not trading this asset, but I like to use this asset to establish trading ideas on other assets such as EUR vs USD etc.

EUR vs USD

Mixed signal.

EUR vs USD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs USD. This asset is in a bullish trend. Currently we don't know if the pullback is over and we'll see a continuation of the bullish trend. We may also see the beginning signs of a trend shift followed by a deeper correction (or even a trend change). Last week did complete the Evening Star Pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern. This asset made about 1.500 pips without really a pullback since April this year. With a bullish Dollar bias, chances are in favour of the Evening Star Pattern on this asset. Time will tell. I still would like to see a test of the black horizontal line, ideally of the green rectangle.

Ger30

Bullish bias for the week.

Ger30 W1

This is the weekly chart of Ger30/DAX30. Last week did close as a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at a relevant level. This is not an ideal Bullish Engulfing Pattern is the engulfing pattern failed to close above the previous candle. However, the pattern is valid and it is at a relevant level. We trade what we see. And that is a bullish pattern at a level of interest. Additionally we have a closing price above the 13.000 level. All this puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

Copper

Bearish bias for the week.

Copper W1

This is the weekly chart of Copper. This asset is in a bullish trend. However, my bias for the week ahead is counter the prevailing trend. Price did close the first time below a higher low. This catches my attention. This is not a shift of trend yet.

USD vs CHF

Bullish bias for the week.

USD vs CHF W1

This is the weekly chart of USD vs CHF. Price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern at a level of interest. See to the left, you'll see a break of a lower high. Price did pull back to this level and formed a bullish reversal pattern. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls. Additionally, the USDOLLAR Index (FXCM USD Index) also suggests bullishness. Basically below parity I would rather maintain a neutral of negative biase, but market structure suggests bullishness.

EUR vs GBP

Mixed signal.

EUR vs GBP W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs GBP. I was debating with myself whether or not to list this asset. As you can tell, I decided in favour of the latter. Price is in a narrow trading range, which I like to call a congestion zone. It is not advised to trade inside the congestion. However, I like how last the week Rejection Candle formed right on top of support. This suggests strength at this level. A close below the lower red horizontal line would negate this putative strength.

AUD vs CAD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs CAD. This is an asset that likes to wick a lot. So keep this in mind trading AUD vs CAD. Price shows resistance to move south. Last week did close as a Rejection Candle. Price tried to violate the swing low but failed to do so. This puts my bias in favour of the bulls.

It seems the week ahead will be an interesting one. USD appears to be the srongest asset for the week ahead. Many trading opportunities do not necessarily mean to take many trades. I hope you find my weekly analysis useful in your journey as a trader.

If you have any questions or feedback please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT

Setups for the week ahead 04.12.-08.12.2017

EUR vs CAD

Bearish bias for the week.

EUR vs CAD W1

This is the weekly chart of EUR vs CAD. Last week did close as a Shooting Star. The week did close with good CAD news. Price failed to break the swing high. This puts my bias for the week ahead in favour of the bears. Price is testing the resistance level. I am not inclined to look for short opportunities above 1,50. As long price is above 1,50 I am willing to give the market the chance to break resistance.

NZD vs JPY

Mixed signal.

NZD vs JPY W1

This is the weekly chart of NZD vs JPY. Price shows all signs of a trend shift with a lower high and a lower low. There is a good chance we may see a test of the 75 level. That is the next critical level. But there is no bearish weekly setup, hence the label "mixed signal." It is weel worth to keep an eye on this asset. I'll get more interested once price gets closer to the critical level.

AUD vs NZD

Bullish bias for the week.

AUD vs NZD W1

This is the weekly chart of AUD vs NZD. Last week did close as a Hammer. This is a bullish reversal pattern. I did talk about this asset and some other Aussie related pairs last week (see here).

US Oil

Mixed signal.

US Oil W1

This is the weekly chart of US Oil. There is no setup as of yet. But price is approaching an interestig level. That's why this asset is listed here. Last week did close as a Hanging Man, which is a bearish reversal pattern. However, a Hanging Man needs to get confirmed. I personally do not like trading Hanging Man formations, cause these can also be interpreted as a bullish pattern representing a rejection of lower prices. Count three candles back and you see a nice Hanging Man formation. That's why we need to wait for confirmation of a Hanging Man. For now, all I care is the level. And the level is interesting.

If you have feedbacks or any questions, please leave them in the comments section below.

Happy trading,
TT